Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$1.35
EPS est.
$1.64
EPS surprise
-17.63%
1-day move
-4.39%
Houlihan Lokey's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which likely contributed to the stock's decline of 4.39% following the announcement. Investors may be concerned about the company's performance and future prospects, especially given the lack of revenue details and guidance updates.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.35 | N/A | -17.63% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) is a global investment banking firm that specializes in financial advisory services, including mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and valuation. With a market cap of $9 billion, the company plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly as businesses seek expert guidance in a fluctuating economic environment.
Last quarter
In Q4 2026, Houlihan Lokey reported an EPS of $1.63, which was below the expected $1.84, resulting in a negative surprise of 11.56%. The stock reacted by declining 1.96% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+6.35%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.56%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about Houlihan Lokey's upcoming earnings report, especially after a mixed performance in the previous quarter. The focus will be on whether the company can rebound from its recent EPS miss.
Bull case
If Houlihan Lokey can surprise investors with strong earnings and positive revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in demand for its services, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or weak revenue growth, it could raise concerns about its market position and lead to further declines in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q1-2027?
The EPS figure will be critical in determining whether the company can recover from its last quarter's miss and restore investor confidence.
Q2
How has M&A activity impacted revenue this quarter?
Given the firm's focus on investment banking, understanding the impact of M&A activity on revenue will be key to assessing future growth prospects.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in Houlihan Lokey's earnings, as recent trends in M&A activity suggest a stronger demand for advisory services than reflected in current estimates.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 4.1% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's historical performance.
The company's past EPS surprises show a 75% beat rate, suggesting that it has a strong track record of exceeding expectations.
Key risk
If M&A activity shows a significant uptick, it could lead to a much stronger revenue performance than currently anticipated.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on whether Houlihan Lokey can demonstrate a rebound in earnings and revenue growth after a disappointing last quarter.
Bull confirmed if
A significant EPS of $1.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing demand for Houlihan Lokey's services.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.1%
Historical Avg
±1.0%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 4.1% following the earnings report, indicating that investors are anticipating some volatility.
Options price a 4.1% move but the stock has averaged only 1.0% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
26.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
105.51%
of float
Insider
0.20%
of float
Holders
670
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
5,240,406 sh · $656.2M
9.67%
-0.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Houlihan Lokey beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could move up by an average of 0.31%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.
Miss
If the company misses earnings expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.68%, leading to increased concerns about its market position.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
2 buys·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,774,115 sh · $347.4M
5.12%
-0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,439,724 sh · $305.5M
4.50%
0.8%
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
2,426,619 sh · $303.9M
4.48%
-8.2%
Earnest Partners LLC
2,172,720 sh · $272.1M
4.01%
-2.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 7, 2026 · disclosed Sep 10, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 16, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.