Equity Profile

HLI

Houlihan Lokey, Inc.

FinancialsInvestment Banking & Brokerage$9.6B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2027After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) is a global investment bank that specializes in financial advisory services, including mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and valuation....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company performed compared to expectations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential to assess the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HLI Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) is a global investment bank that specializes in financial advisory services, including mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and valuation. With a market cap of $10 billion, it plays a crucial role in the financial sector, especially in helping companies navigate complex transactions and financial strategies.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.53%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q4-2026), Houlihan Lokey reported an EPS of $1.63, which was below the expected $1.84, resulting in a negative surprise of 11.56%. The stock reacted with a decline of 1.96% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for the upcoming earnings report are mixed, given the recent miss in EPS and lack of analyst estimates. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of recovery in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

If Houlihan Lokey can exceed EPS expectations and show strong deal volume, it could signal a rebound in their business and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another miss or weak revenue growth, it could raise concerns about its market position and lead to further declines in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous estimates?

Given the recent miss, the market will be focused on whether Houlihan Lokey can return to profitability and meet or exceed expectations.

What is the outlook for deal volume in the upcoming quarters?

Deal volume is a critical indicator of the company's growth potential and overall market conditions, which investors will be keen to understand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Houlihan Lokey's ability to recover from its recent earnings miss, especially if deal volume picks up due to favorable market conditions.

Supporting Evidence

Historically, the company has a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options are pricing a 4.1% move, suggesting that traders expect more volatility than the stock has shown in the past.

The recent insider buying activity could signal confidence in the company's future prospects.

Key Risk

If deal volume increases significantly, it could lead to a positive earnings surprise, contradicting the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Houlihan Lokey can rebound from its previous earnings miss and demonstrate strong business fundamentals.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.80 or higher would confirm the bull case and show a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.50 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's future performance.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.1%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 4.1%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.1% while HLI has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

26.2%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If the company beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.31%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests an average one-day move of -0.68%, which could lead to further declines.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on deal volume trends and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and their impact on future earnings.
3Details on any new strategic initiatives that could drive growth.
4Insights into client demand for advisory services in the current economic environment.
5Any changes in guidance or outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) is a global investment bank that specializes in financial advisory services, including mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and valuation....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company performed compared to expectations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential to assess the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HLI Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.53%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Houlihan Lokey can exceed EPS expectations and show strong deal volume, it could signal a rebound in their business and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another miss or weak revenue growth, it could raise concerns about its market position and lead to further declines in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous estimates?

Given the recent miss, the market will be focused on whether Houlihan Lokey can return to profitability and meet or exceed expectations.

What is the outlook for deal volume in the upcoming quarters?

Deal volume is a critical indicator of the company's growth potential and overall market conditions, which investors will be keen to understand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Houlihan Lokey's ability to recover from its recent earnings miss, especially if deal volume picks up due to favorable market conditions.

Supporting Evidence

Historically, the company has a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options are pricing a 4.1% move, suggesting that traders expect more volatility than the stock has shown in the past.

The recent insider buying activity could signal confidence in the company's future prospects.

Key Risk

If deal volume increases significantly, it could lead to a positive earnings surprise, contradicting the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Houlihan Lokey can rebound from its previous earnings miss and demonstrate strong business fundamentals.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.80 or higher would confirm the bull case and show a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.50 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's future performance.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.1%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 4.1%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.1% while HLI has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

26.2%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If the company beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.31%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests an average one-day move of -0.68%, which could lead to further declines.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on deal volume trends and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and their impact on future earnings.
3Details on any new strategic initiatives that could drive growth.
4Insights into client demand for advisory services in the current economic environment.
5Any changes in guidance or outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.