Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$1.63
EPS est.
$1.84
EPS surprise
-11.56%
1-day move
-1.96%
The earnings report indicates that Houlihan Lokey fell short of EPS expectations, which contributed to a 1.96% decline in stock price. Investors may be concerned about the company's performance relative to market expectations, especially given the lack of revenue data and guidance. The absence of management commentary leaves uncertainty about future prospects.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.63 | $1.79 | -11.56% |
| Revenue | — | $679M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) is a global investment banking and financial services firm that specializes in mergers and acquisitions, financial restructuring, and capital markets. With a market cap of $10 billion, the company plays a crucial role in advising clients on complex financial transactions, making it significant in the financial sector.
Last quarter
In Q3-2026, Houlihan Lokey reported an EPS of $1.94, exceeding expectations by 5.15%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.49% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+6.35%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.56%
Analysts expect Houlihan Lokey to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.79. The market is keenly watching for any signs of growth in revenue and profitability.
Bull case
If the company beats EPS estimates, it could indicate strong demand for its services and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations, it may raise concerns about declining demand in the investment banking sector, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.79Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$679MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's overall business performance and demand for its services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.79?
A beat on EPS could signal strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What revenue figures will the company report, and how do they compare to the consensus of $679M?
Revenue performance is critical for understanding the company's growth trajectory and market demand.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Houlihan Lokey's ability to capitalize on recent market trends, particularly in M&A activity, which could drive stronger-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may reflect investor sentiment that is more optimistic than the consensus.
Key risk
If the revenue comes in below $650M, it could undermine the bullish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will reflect the company's ability to navigate a competitive investment banking landscape.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.85 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.70 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues in revenue generation.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.05%
Historical Avg
±1.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.0% while HLI has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
23.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials
Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.0% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
105.51%
of float
Insider
0.20%
of float
Holders
670
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
5,240,406 sh · $656.2M
9.67%
-0.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Houlihan Lokey beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.12%, confirming strong demand.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around +0.60%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
2 buys·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,774,115 sh · $347.4M
5.12%
-0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,439,724 sh · $305.5M
4.50%
0.8%
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
2,426,619 sh · $303.9M
4.48%
-8.2%
Earnest Partners LLC
2,172,720 sh · $272.1M
4.01%
-2.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 7, 2026 · disclosed Sep 10, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 16, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.