Equity Profile

HLT

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryHotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines$73.4B

Apr28Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:00 AM EDT

Hilton Worldwide Beats on EPS, Stock Down 0.95%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.01	$1.97	+2.50%
Revenue	N/A	$2.9B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Hilton Worldwide Beats on EPS, Stock Down 0.95%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.01	$1.97	+2.50%
Revenue	N/A	$2.9B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Cautiously Optimistic

Management expressed satisfaction with the EPS results, highlighting operational efficiency. They acknowledged ongoing market challenges but maintained a focus on future growth.

We are pleased with our EPS performance this quarter.

Despite challenges, our focus remains on long-term growth.

What It Means

Hilton's earnings report shows a positive surprise in EPS, indicating better-than-expected profitability. However, the stock fell by 0.95%, likely due to the lack of revenue information and forward guidance. Investors may be cautious as the company navigates market challenges ahead.

Company Snapshot

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is a leading global hospitality company known for its extensive portfolio of hotels and resorts....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Hilton is managing costs and generating revenue.

$1.97

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the overall business performance and demand for Hilton's services, crucial for assessing growth.

$2.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is a leading global hospitality company known for its extensive portfolio of hotels and resorts. With a market cap of $76 billion, Hilton plays a significant role in the travel and tourism sector, which is influenced by consumer spending and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.86%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.24%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Hilton reported an EPS of $2.08, exceeding expectations by 3.79%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.44% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue expanding the hotel portfolio.
Focus on enhancing customer experience.
Maintain strong revenue growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Hilton to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.97 and revenue of $2.9 billion. The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters.

Bull Case

If Hilton can exceed the EPS estimate, it may indicate strong demand and effective cost management, leading to a potential stock rally.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Hilton fails to meet expectations, it could signal weakening demand in the hospitality sector, resulting in a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.97

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Hilton is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue

$2.9B

Total revenue reflects the overall business performance and demand for Hilton's services, crucial for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Hilton's revenue exceed $2.9 billion?

This figure is crucial for assessing overall demand and growth in the hospitality sector, especially post-pandemic.

Can Hilton maintain or improve its EPS above $1.97?

A strong EPS would reinforce investor confidence and indicate effective management of costs and operations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Hilton's ability to capitalize on post-pandemic travel demand, especially in leisure segments.

Supporting Evidence

Hilton has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent trends in travel indicate a rebound in demand that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Hilton's ability to navigate the competitive hospitality landscape and consumer spending trends.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.04 or higher would confirm strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.93 would raise concerns about demand and profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.42%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while HLT has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

27.1%

Calls (94K)P/C Ratio: 2.41Puts (225K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 2 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Unknown

n=2

Fade rate: 1 of 2 (50%)

This setup has occurred 2 times across Unknown in the last 2 years. 1 of 2 faded and 1 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of -4.8% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Hilton beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +1.07%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results come in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a significant drop, with historical data suggesting a potential decline of around -2.55%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on hotel occupancy rates and booking trends.
2Any commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into customer preferences post-pandemic.
4Details about new hotel openings and expansion plans.
5Management's outlook on the broader economic environment.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is a leading global hospitality company known for its extensive portfolio of hotels and resorts....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Hilton is managing costs and generating revenue.

$1.97

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the overall business performance and demand for Hilton's services, crucial for assessing growth.

$2.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.86%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.24%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Hilton reported an EPS of $2.08, exceeding expectations by 3.79%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.44% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue expanding the hotel portfolio.
Focus on enhancing customer experience.
Maintain strong revenue growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Hilton to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.97 and revenue of $2.9 billion. The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters.

Bull Case

If Hilton can exceed the EPS estimate, it may indicate strong demand and effective cost management, leading to a potential stock rally.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Hilton fails to meet expectations, it could signal weakening demand in the hospitality sector, resulting in a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.97

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Hilton is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue

$2.9B

Total revenue reflects the overall business performance and demand for Hilton's services, crucial for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Hilton's revenue exceed $2.9 billion?

This figure is crucial for assessing overall demand and growth in the hospitality sector, especially post-pandemic.

Can Hilton maintain or improve its EPS above $1.97?

A strong EPS would reinforce investor confidence and indicate effective management of costs and operations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Hilton's ability to capitalize on post-pandemic travel demand, especially in leisure segments.

Supporting Evidence

Hilton has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent trends in travel indicate a rebound in demand that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Hilton's ability to navigate the competitive hospitality landscape and consumer spending trends.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.04 or higher would confirm strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.93 would raise concerns about demand and profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.42%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while HLT has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

27.1%

Calls (94K)P/C Ratio: 2.41Puts (225K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 2 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Unknown

n=2

Fade rate: 1 of 2 (50%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Hilton beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +1.07%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results come in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a significant drop, with historical data suggesting a potential decline of around -2.55%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on hotel occupancy rates and booking trends.
2Any commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into customer preferences post-pandemic.
4Details about new hotel openings and expansion plans.
5Management's outlook on the broader economic environment.