Equity Profile

HOG

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryMotorcycle Manufacturers$2.6B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a well-known motorcycle manufacturer that designs and sells heavyweight motorcycles....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely scrutinize this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract customers and increase sales, which is vital for sustaining long-term growth.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HOG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a well-known motorcycle manufacturer that designs and sells heavyweight motorcycles. As a key player in the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and the overall health of the economy.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.56%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Harley-Davidson reported an EPS of $0.22, which was significantly below the expected $0.34, resulting in a negative surprise of 36.05%. Despite this, the stock rose by 8.19% the following day, indicating some investor optimism.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Harley-Davidson's upcoming earnings report are mixed, with some investors hoping for a recovery in sales and profitability after a disappointing last quarter.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on a rebound in motorcycle sales and improved margins, potentially leading to a positive surprise in EPS and revenue.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to struggle with sales and profitability, it could face further declines, especially given the recent earnings miss.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the specific motorcycle sales figures and how do they compare to last year?

Sales figures will be critical in assessing the company's market position and growth potential, especially following recent trends.

Will management provide guidance on expected revenue growth for the next quarter?

Forward guidance will be essential for investors to gauge the company's outlook and potential recovery trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a sales rebound, as recent trends in consumer spending could favor Harley-Davidson's premium offerings.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 17.37% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not reflect the company's actual recovery potential.

The recent uptick in motorcycle culture and leisure activities could drive demand higher than anticipated.

Key Risk

If motorcycle sales exceed expectations significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Harley-Davidson can recover from recent sales declines and improve profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in motorcycle sales volume compared to last year, indicating strong demand.

Bear Confirmed If

A continued decline in sales or a lack of guidance on revenue growth, confirming ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.37%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating heightened uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.4% while HOG has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

52.4%

Calls (15K)P/C Ratio: 0.52Puts (15K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 28 (57%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 16 of 28 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.3%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Harley-Davidson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 6.37%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of around 5.99%, reinforcing concerns about its performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$45,003.00–$150,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCTim MooreRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on the impact of rising consumer spending on motorcycle sales.
2Details on new product launches and their expected contribution to sales.
3Insights into supply chain improvements and their effect on production capacity.
4Management's view on competitive pressures and market share.
5Updates on marketing strategies aimed at attracting younger riders.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a well-known motorcycle manufacturer that designs and sells heavyweight motorcycles....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely scrutinize this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract customers and increase sales, which is vital for sustaining long-term growth.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HOG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.56%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Harley-Davidson's upcoming earnings report are mixed, with some investors hoping for a recovery in sales and profitability after a disappointing last quarter.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on a rebound in motorcycle sales and improved margins, potentially leading to a positive surprise in EPS and revenue.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to struggle with sales and profitability, it could face further declines, especially given the recent earnings miss.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the specific motorcycle sales figures and how do they compare to last year?

Sales figures will be critical in assessing the company's market position and growth potential, especially following recent trends.

Will management provide guidance on expected revenue growth for the next quarter?

Forward guidance will be essential for investors to gauge the company's outlook and potential recovery trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a sales rebound, as recent trends in consumer spending could favor Harley-Davidson's premium offerings.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 17.37% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not reflect the company's actual recovery potential.

The recent uptick in motorcycle culture and leisure activities could drive demand higher than anticipated.

Key Risk

If motorcycle sales exceed expectations significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Harley-Davidson can recover from recent sales declines and improve profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in motorcycle sales volume compared to last year, indicating strong demand.

Bear Confirmed If

A continued decline in sales or a lack of guidance on revenue growth, confirming ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.37%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating heightened uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.4% while HOG has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

52.4%

Calls (15K)P/C Ratio: 0.52Puts (15K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 28 (57%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Harley-Davidson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 6.37%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of around 5.99%, reinforcing concerns about its performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$45,003.00–$150,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCTim MooreRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on the impact of rising consumer spending on motorcycle sales.
2Details on new product launches and their expected contribution to sales.
3Insights into supply chain improvements and their effect on production capacity.
4Management's view on competitive pressures and market share.
5Updates on marketing strategies aimed at attracting younger riders.