Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$4.52
EPS est.
$1.80
EPS surprise
+151.11%
1-day move
+5.70%
Honeywell's strong EPS performance, significantly exceeding expectations, led to a 5.7% increase in stock price. However, without revenue figures or management commentary, it's challenging to assess the overall health of the business. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS surprise but will likely await further details in future reports.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $4.52 | N/A | +151.11% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Honeywell International Inc. (HON) is a diversified technology and manufacturing company that operates in various sectors, including aerospace, building technologies, and performance materials. With a market cap of $74 billion, Honeywell plays a crucial role in industrial automation and smart building solutions, which are increasingly important as industries focus on efficiency and sustainability.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Honeywell reported an EPS of $2.45, exceeding estimates by 6.11%. However, the stock fell 2.56% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the earnings beat.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+24.78%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.41%
Overall, analysts expect Honeywell to maintain its strong performance, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, there is uncertainty regarding revenue growth and operational efficiency.
Bull case
If Honeywell can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve operating margins, it could lead to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or shows signs of declining margins, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the revenue growth rate for the aerospace segment?
Given the recovery in air travel, strong performance in this segment could significantly boost overall results.
Q2
How is Honeywell managing its operating costs in the current economic environment?
Effective cost management is crucial for maintaining margins, especially if revenue growth is slower than expected.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating Honeywell's potential for strong revenue growth in the aerospace sector, which could rebound faster than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing an 8% move, but Honeywell has historically moved less than that on average.
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger underlying performance than reflected in current expectations.
Key risk
If aerospace revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could significantly shift market sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on Honeywell's ability to balance revenue growth with cost management in a challenging economic landscape.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth of 8% or higher, with operating margins improving to 20% or better.
Bear confirmed if
Revenue growth below 3% or a decline in operating margins.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.9%
Historical Avg
±5.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 8%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.9% while HON has averaged ±5.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
26.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.35%
of float
Insider
0.08%
of float
Holders
2,763
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
22,778,297 sh · $4.7B
7.19%
-6.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Honeywell beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.23% on average, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.95%, as seen in past quarters when expectations were not met.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
5
1 buy·2 sells
Members
4
House only
Est. Notional
$47,005.00–$180,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
20,693,284 sh · $4.3B
6.53%
0.3%
State Street Corporation
18,738,370 sh · $3.9B
5.91%
18.1%
Newport Trust Company, LLC
12,865,197 sh · $2.7B
4.06%
100.0%
Invesco Ltd.
11,249,305 sh · $2.3B
3.55%
6.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
1 trade
Net buying
0 trades
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 24, 2026 · disclosed Oct 7, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 31, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 29, 2026 · disclosed Jul 16, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jun 29, 2026 · disclosed Jul 30, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.