Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.62
EPS est.
$0.43
EPS surprise
+43.52%
1-day move
-3.15%
Robinhood Markets, Inc. is a financial services company that offers a platform for trading stocks, options, and cryptocurrencies without commission fees. As a key player in the investment banking and brokerage sector, it appeals to a younger demographic looking for accessible investment opportunities.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Robinhood reported an EPS of $0.38, slightly missing expectations. The stock fell 2.24% the following day, indicating market disappointment.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+32.42%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.66%
Overall expectations for Robinhood are mixed, with some investors hopeful for a rebound in user engagement and trading activity, while others remain cautious due to recent earnings misses.
Bull case
The optimistic view hinges on a strong recovery in trading volumes and user growth, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings and a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to show significant user growth, it could lead to further declines in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current active user count and how does it compare to previous quarters?
User growth is critical for revenue generation, and any significant changes could impact market sentiment.
Q2
What trading volume trends are being observed this quarter?
Increased trading volume can lead to higher revenues, making this a key indicator of the company's performance.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in user engagement and trading volumes, which could lead to a positive surprise.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 10.01% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with actual performance.
Historically, Robinhood has a 75% EPS beat rate, suggesting potential for positive surprises.
Key risk
If user growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of Robinhood's growth trajectory.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will likely hinge on user engagement and trading activity, both of which are vital for revenue growth.
Bull confirmed if
A significant increase in active users, exceeding previous highs, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A continued decline in trading volumes below last quarter's levels would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.01%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±10.0% while HOOD has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
77.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$44.1M
395,826 sh
3 insiders
Net
$44.1M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 8 open-market trades
$42.6M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
79.47%
of float
Insider
0.96%
of float
Holders
1,860
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
67,787,066 sh · $7.4B
8.57%
6.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Robinhood beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.58%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management expresses caution, the stock may see muted movement.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 0.80%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$1.1M
Net selling
$292,531.30
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $113.97
193,897 sh
$22.1M
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $113.24
158,911 sh
$18.0M
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $114.95
22,192 sh
$2.6M
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $113.28
4,800 sh
$543,741.12
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $114.01
4,700 sh
$535,829.61
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
51,655,498 sh · $5.7B
6.53%
0.6%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
37,313,830 sh · $4.1B
4.72%
0.4%
State Street Corporation
34,671,148 sh · $3.8B
4.39%
3.9%
FMR, LLC
29,907,700 sh · $3.3B
3.78%
65.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Apr 14, 2026 · disclosed May 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.