Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 28, 2026
EPS actual
$0.40
EPS est.
$0.35
EPS surprise
+13.64%
1-day move
+12.55%
Hormel Foods Corporation reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which likely contributed to a strong stock reaction, with shares rising 12.55%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may view the EPS beat as a positive sign for the company's profitability.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.40 | $0.35 | +13.64% |
| Revenue | N/A | $3.0B | N/A |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) is a major player in the consumer staples sector, specializing in packaged foods and meats. The company is known for its diverse range of products, including meats, meals, and snacks, which are staples in many households. As consumer preferences shift towards convenience and quality, Hormel's performance is closely tied to trends in food consumption and retail dynamics.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Hormel reported an EPS of $0.34, exceeding expectations of $0.32, marking a positive surprise. However, the stock experienced a decline of nearly 2% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+1.11%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.06%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Hormel's upcoming earnings, expecting it to meet or slightly exceed EPS and revenue estimates. However, concerns about rising costs and competitive pressures could temper enthusiasm.
Bull case
If Hormel can demonstrate strong sales growth and effective cost management, it may exceed expectations, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Should the company report weaker-than-expected sales or rising costs, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price, reflecting investor concerns.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.35Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$3.0BTotal revenue provides insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Hormel's products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Hormel's revenue meet or exceed the $3.0B consensus?
Revenue performance is crucial for assessing market demand and growth potential, which investors will closely monitor.
Q2
What specific strategies is management implementing to control costs?
With rising costs impacting margins, insights into cost management strategies will be critical for investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
$1.01
Est. Rev
$543M
Impl. Move
±8.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Hormel's ability to manage costs effectively, given its historical focus on operational efficiency and product innovation.
Supporting evidence
Hormel has a track record of exceeding EPS estimates, suggesting potential for another positive surprise.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.
Management's commitment to cost control could mitigate the impact of rising input costs.
Key risk
If Hormel's revenue comes in below $2.9B, it could significantly challenge the bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Hormel can sustain profitability amid rising costs and competitive pressures.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.36 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $3.0B, would confirm the bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.35 or revenue falling short of $2.9B would support the bearish case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.69%
Historical Avg
±5.6%
The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that investors anticipate significant volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±6.7% while HRL has averaged ±5.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.1%
30d HV
23.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples
Fade rate: 8 of 27 (30%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 19 of 27 (70%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.9%, with a raw directional average of +0.8% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$201,000.00
10,000 sh
1 insider
Sold
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Net
$201,000.00
Net buying
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Hormel beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.62%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average one-day drop of -4.59% following earnings misses.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$201,000.00
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $20.10
10,000 sh
$201,000.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 13, 2026 · disclosed Sep 1, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.