Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Dec 3, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±9.8%
EPS beat rate
50%
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) is a major player in the packaged foods and meats sector, providing a range of products from meats to snacks. As a consumer staples company, it plays a vital role in everyday grocery shopping, making it sensitive to consumer spending trends and food inflation.
Last quarter
In Q3-2026, Hormel reported an EPS of $0.37, surpassing estimates by 3.93%. However, the stock fell 10.25% the following day, indicating market disappointment despite the earnings beat.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+1.11%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.06%
Overall, expectations are mixed as Hormel has shown a tendency to beat earnings estimates, but the stock reaction has been volatile. Investors will be watching closely for any signs of sustained revenue growth.
Bull case
If Hormel can deliver strong revenue growth alongside its EPS, it may signal a recovery in consumer demand and improved pricing power, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if Hormel fails to meet revenue expectations or shows signs of declining margins due to rising costs, it could lead to further stock declines.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the revenue growth rate be for this quarter?
Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to attract and retain customers, especially in a competitive market.
Q2
How is Hormel managing its costs in the face of inflation?
Understanding cost management strategies will help investors gauge the company's ability to maintain margins and profitability.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±15.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising consumer demand for convenience foods, which could drive unexpected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
The recent insider buying suggests confidence in the company's future performance.
Historical trends show that Hormel has a 63% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could shift market sentiment significantly.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects Hormel's ability to navigate inflationary pressures and changing consumer preferences.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth of at least 5% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A revenue decline or stagnation would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.79%
Historical Avg
±5.6%
The options market is pricing a significant move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±9.8% while HRL has averaged ±5.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
34.7%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$201,000.00
10,000 sh
1 insider
Sold
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Net
$201,000.00
Net buying
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Hormel beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.06%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management offers cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 4.59%, indicating investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$201,000.00
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $20.10
10,000 sh
$201,000.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 13, 2026 · disclosed Sep 1, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.