Equity Profile

HTGC

Hercules Capital, Inc.

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$2.9B

May5Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:05 PM EDT

Hercules Capital Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.79%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.48	$0.47	+2.13%
Revenue	N/A	$141M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Hercules Capital Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.79%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.48	$0.47	+2.13%
Revenue	N/A	$141M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Hercules Capital reported an EPS that exceeded expectations, which contributed to a slight increase in stock price. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty. Investors may be encouraged by the earnings beat, but the lack of revenue data and guidance could lead to cautious sentiment.

Company Snapshot

Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is a financial services company that specializes in providing debt and equity financing to venture capital-backed companies....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

0.47

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its financing activities, which is critical for its growth.

141M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is a financial services company that specializes in providing debt and equity financing to venture capital-backed companies. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a crucial role in supporting innovation and growth in various sectors, particularly technology and life sciences.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Hercules Capital reported earnings of $0.48 per share, matching analyst expectations. However, the stock saw a slight decline of 1.13% the following day, indicating market caution.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Hercules Capital to report earnings of $0.47 per share and revenue of $141 million for Q1-2026. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or challenges in their portfolio.

Bull Case

If Hercules Capital exceeds earnings expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its financing services, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or reports weaker revenue, it may raise concerns about its investment strategy and the health of its portfolio companies.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.47

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

Revenue

141M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its financing activities, which is critical for its growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Hercules Capital's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.47?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and investor confidence, while a miss could raise concerns about the company's financial health.

What is the outlook for revenue growth compared to the consensus of $141 million?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's ability to expand its financing activities and support its portfolio companies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Hercules Capital's ability to leverage its portfolio effectively, leading to stronger-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 50% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility that may not align with current consensus.

Key Risk

If the company reports revenue growth significantly above $141 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Hercules Capital can maintain its profitability and revenue growth in a potentially challenging economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings per share of $0.48 or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Earnings per share below $0.44 would signal a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.43%

Historical Avg

±0.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.4% while HTGC has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

27.9%

Calls (47K)P/C Ratio: 0.84Puts (39K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.0% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Hercules Capital beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest decline of around 0.71%, confirming market skepticism.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious optimism without strong conviction.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 0.38%, indicating market disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCVirginia FoxxRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the performance of key portfolio companies.
2Insights into the company's investment strategy moving forward.
3Comments on market conditions affecting venture capital funding.
4Details on any new financing deals or partnerships.
5Management's outlook on future revenue growth.

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Company Snapshot

Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is a financial services company that specializes in providing debt and equity financing to venture capital-backed companies....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

0.47

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its financing activities, which is critical for its growth.

141M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Hercules Capital reported earnings of $0.48 per share, matching analyst expectations. However, the stock saw a slight decline of 1.13% the following day, indicating market caution.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Hercules Capital exceeds earnings expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its financing services, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or reports weaker revenue, it may raise concerns about its investment strategy and the health of its portfolio companies.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.47

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

Revenue

141M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its financing activities, which is critical for its growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Hercules Capital's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.47?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and investor confidence, while a miss could raise concerns about the company's financial health.

What is the outlook for revenue growth compared to the consensus of $141 million?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's ability to expand its financing activities and support its portfolio companies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Hercules Capital's ability to leverage its portfolio effectively, leading to stronger-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 50% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility that may not align with current consensus.

Key Risk

If the company reports revenue growth significantly above $141 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Hercules Capital can maintain its profitability and revenue growth in a potentially challenging economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings per share of $0.48 or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Earnings per share below $0.44 would signal a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.43%

Historical Avg

±0.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.4% while HTGC has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

27.9%

Calls (47K)P/C Ratio: 0.84Puts (39K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.0% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Hercules Capital beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest decline of around 0.71%, confirming market skepticism.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious optimism without strong conviction.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 0.38%, indicating market disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCVirginia FoxxRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the performance of key portfolio companies.
2Insights into the company's investment strategy moving forward.
3Comments on market conditions affecting venture capital funding.
4Details on any new financing deals or partnerships.
5Management's outlook on future revenue growth.