Equity Profile

HTGC

Hercules Capital, Inc.

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$2.9B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is a financial services company that specializes in providing debt and equity financing to venture capital-backed companies....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance this quarter.

N/A

Total Revenue

Total revenue will help gauge the overall financial health and growth of Hercules Capital.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HTGC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is a financial services company that specializes in providing debt and equity financing to venture capital-backed companies. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the asset management and custody banking sector, focusing on supporting innovation and growth in various industries.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Hercules Capital reported an EPS of $0.48, slightly beating expectations of $0.47. The stock experienced a modest increase of 0.79% the following day, indicating a positive market reaction.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding the loan portfolio to support more startups.
Maintain strong relationships with venture capital firms.
Continue to seek opportunities in high-growth sectors.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Hercules Capital's upcoming earnings report are mixed, with no specific analyst estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its profitability amidst market fluctuations.

Bull Case

If Hercules Capital can demonstrate strong loan portfolio growth and exceed EPS expectations, it may signal robust demand for its services and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of a declining loan portfolio, it could raise concerns about its future growth prospects and negatively impact the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the growth rate of the loan portfolio this quarter?

The growth rate will indicate the company's ability to lend and support new ventures, which is critical for its business model.

How does management view the current market conditions affecting venture capital?

Understanding management's perspective on market conditions will help investors gauge potential risks and opportunities for Hercules Capital.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Hercules Capital to capitalize on a growing venture capital market, which could drive loan portfolio growth higher than expected.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends show increased venture capital activity, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that the market anticipates significant news.

The company's historical performance shows a consistent ability to adapt to market changes.

Key Risk

If loan portfolio growth exceeds 15%, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the company's ability to maintain its lending activity and adapt to market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

A loan portfolio growth rate of over 15% would confirm the bull case and suggest strong demand for Hercules Capital's services.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in the loan portfolio or an EPS below $0.45 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about future growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.76%

Historical Avg

±0.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of approximately 7.76%, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.7% while HTGC has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.8%

Calls (10K)P/C Ratio: 1.13Puts (8K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Hercules Capital beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.79% on the following day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.38%, indicating disappointment among investors.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCVirginia FoxxRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the loan portfolio growth rate.
2Management's commentary on the venture capital market outlook.
3Details on new partnerships or funding initiatives.
4Insights into sector-specific trends affecting lending.
5Future guidance on expected EPS and revenue growth.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is a financial services company that specializes in providing debt and equity financing to venture capital-backed companies....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance this quarter.

N/A

Total Revenue

Total revenue will help gauge the overall financial health and growth of Hercules Capital.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HTGC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.45%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding the loan portfolio to support more startups.
Maintain strong relationships with venture capital firms.
Continue to seek opportunities in high-growth sectors.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Hercules Capital can demonstrate strong loan portfolio growth and exceed EPS expectations, it may signal robust demand for its services and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of a declining loan portfolio, it could raise concerns about its future growth prospects and negatively impact the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the growth rate of the loan portfolio this quarter?

The growth rate will indicate the company's ability to lend and support new ventures, which is critical for its business model.

How does management view the current market conditions affecting venture capital?

Understanding management's perspective on market conditions will help investors gauge potential risks and opportunities for Hercules Capital.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Hercules Capital to capitalize on a growing venture capital market, which could drive loan portfolio growth higher than expected.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends show increased venture capital activity, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that the market anticipates significant news.

The company's historical performance shows a consistent ability to adapt to market changes.

Key Risk

If loan portfolio growth exceeds 15%, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the company's ability to maintain its lending activity and adapt to market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

A loan portfolio growth rate of over 15% would confirm the bull case and suggest strong demand for Hercules Capital's services.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in the loan portfolio or an EPS below $0.45 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about future growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.76%

Historical Avg

±0.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of approximately 7.76%, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.7% while HTGC has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.8%

Calls (10K)P/C Ratio: 1.13Puts (8K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Hercules Capital beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.79% on the following day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.38%, indicating disappointment among investors.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCVirginia FoxxRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the loan portfolio growth rate.
2Management's commentary on the venture capital market outlook.
3Details on new partnerships or funding initiatives.
4Insights into sector-specific trends affecting lending.
5Future guidance on expected EPS and revenue growth.