Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±7.0%
EPS beat rate
63%
IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG) is a gold mining company focused on the exploration, development, and production of gold. With a market cap of $10 billion, it plays a significant role in the materials sector, particularly as gold remains a key asset in times of economic uncertainty.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, IAMGOLD reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.40, slightly missing the estimate of $0.42. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.88% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+77.07%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.77%
Overall expectations for IAMGOLD's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors closely watching production levels and cost management.
Bull case
If the company reports strong gold production and lower cash costs, it could signal robust profitability, driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if production falls short or costs rise unexpectedly, it may lead to negative investor sentiment and a decline in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the gold production figure for Q3-2026?
Production levels are critical for assessing the company's operational success and future revenue potential.
Q2
What are the cash costs per ounce for gold production?
Understanding cash costs will help investors gauge profitability, especially in a fluctuating gold price environment.
Est. EPS
$1.98
Est. Rev
$113.6B
Impl. Move
±4.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating IAMGOLD's potential for cost reduction and production efficiency improvements, which could lead to better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
Historically, IAMGOLD has a 63% EPS beat rate, indicating a tendency to outperform expectations.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than the historical average, suggesting that traders anticipate significant news.
Key risk
If production comes in below 200,000 ounces, it could challenge the bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on production efficiency and cost management, which are vital for profitability.
Bull confirmed if
A production figure exceeding 200,000 ounces would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
If cash costs exceed $1,200 per ounce, it would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±14.52%
Historical Avg
±2.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.0% while IAG has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
42.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials
Fade rate: 9 of 30 (30%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 21 of 30 (70%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.2%, with a raw directional average of +1.4% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
75.58%
of float
Insider
0.11%
of float
Holders
483
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Van Eck Associates Corporation
38,110,975 sh · $687.1M
6.70%
2.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If IAMGOLD beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.14%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react modestly, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.14%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
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16,177,410 sh · $291.7M
2.84%
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13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded May 5, 2026 · disclosed May 18, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.