Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 21, 2026
EPS actual
$0.69
EPS est.
$0.64
EPS surprise
+8.66%
1-day move
+2.99%
Interactive Brokers reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which contributed to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising by nearly 3%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS beat, but the lack of revenue data could lead to cautious sentiment moving forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.69 | $0.62 | +8.66% |
| Revenue | — | $1.8B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) is a leading online brokerage firm that provides trading and investment services to individual and institutional clients. As part of the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in facilitating market access and investment opportunities, particularly in a landscape increasingly influenced by technology and digital trading.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Interactive Brokers reported an EPS of $0.60, slightly missing the estimate of $0.61. Following the announcement, the stock experienced a decline of 2.01% the next day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-2.39%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.07%
Analysts expect a modest improvement in earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.62. The market is closely watching how the company navigates current market conditions and competition.
Bull case
If the company can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may signal robust demand for its services and a positive outlook for future quarters.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again, it could raise concerns about its growth strategy and market position, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.62Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
1.8BTotal revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its brokerage services and is critical for assessing growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.62?
A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected profitability and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue figures compared to the expected $1.8B?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market demand.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for revenue growth driven by increased trading volumes and market activity, particularly in a volatile market.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 12.42% move, suggesting expectations for significant volatility.
The company's historical performance shows a mixed record, with recent misses potentially skewing sentiment.
The lack of management guidance could lead to misinterpretation of the company's growth potential.
Key risk
If revenue comes in below $1.7B, it could undermine the optimistic outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating the company's ability to maintain profitability and revenue growth amid competitive pressures.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.65 or higher with revenue exceeding $1.8B would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.58 or revenue falling short of $1.7B would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.42%
Historical Avg
±1.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±12.4% while IBKR has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
35.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$2,135.50
25 sh
1 insider
Sold
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Net
$2,135.50
Net buying
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
88.52%
of float
Insider
2.67%
of float
Holders
1,508
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
33,129,663 sh · $2.9B
7.31%
5.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If IBKR beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.24%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further commentary on future growth.
Miss
If the company misses estimates, history indicates a likely decline of about 0.17%, raising concerns about its market position.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$2,135.50
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $85.42
25 sh
$2,135.50
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
28,349,920 sh · $2.5B
6.26%
0.6%
State Street Corporation
19,437,767 sh · $1.7B
4.29%
1.8%
FMR, LLC
11,828,151 sh · $1.0B
2.61%
-5.4%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
10,641,906 sh · $933.7M
2.35%
1.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.