Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Apr 30, 2026
EPS actual
$2.35
EPS est.
$2.27
EPS surprise
+3.71%
1-day move
+1.22%
Intercontinental Exchange reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which contributed to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising by 1.22%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS beat, but the lack of revenue data and management commentary means caution could be warranted moving forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.35 | $2.26 | +3.71% |
| Revenue | N/A | $2.9B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) operates financial exchanges and provides data services, playing a crucial role in global financial markets. With a market cap of $89 billion, ICE is significant in sectors like commodities and securities, impacting trading and investment strategies.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, ICE reported an EPS of $1.49, missing estimates by nearly 11%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.09% the following day despite the miss.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+1.28%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.29%
Analysts expect ICE to report an EPS of $2.26 and revenue of $2.9 billion, reflecting cautious optimism after a recent earnings miss.
Bull case
If ICE can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in trading volumes and market activity.
Bear case
Conversely, if ICE misses estimates again, it could raise concerns about its market position and ability to attract trading activity.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$2.26Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's consensus is particularly important after a recent earnings miss.
Revenue
$2.9BRevenue figures will help gauge the overall health of the business and its ability to grow amidst market fluctuations.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.26?
A beat on EPS could indicate a strong recovery in trading activity, which is critical for investor confidence.
Q2
What revenue figures will ICE report, particularly in light of recent trading trends?
Revenue performance will provide insight into the company's growth trajectory and market demand.
—
Est. EPS
$0.76
Est. Rev
$17.1B
Impl. Move
±2.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the potential for a strong recovery in trading volumes, especially if market conditions improve.
Supporting evidence
ICE has a history of beating EPS estimates 75% of the time, suggesting potential for a positive surprise.
Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, hinting at market anticipation.
Recent trading activity in related sectors suggests a rebound that ICE could capitalize on.
Key risk
If trading volumes exceed expectations, it could invalidate the current cautious consensus.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether ICE can recover from its recent earnings miss and sustain growth in a competitive environment.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.30 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $3.0 billion, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.23 or revenue falling short of $2.9 billion would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.91%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±4.1% while ICE has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
22.6%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
96.70%
of float
Insider
0.81%
of float
Holders
2,256
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
50,727,686 sh · $7.7B
9.04%
-4.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ICE beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 0.43% the next day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should ICE miss estimates again, the stock could drop by approximately 0.21%, raising concerns about its market position.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
1 buy·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
36,936,565 sh · $5.6B
6.58%
0.1%
State Street Corporation
25,966,680 sh · $4.0B
4.63%
1.6%
Harris Associates L.P.
18,050,700 sh · $2.8B
3.22%
10.4%
Morgan Stanley
13,117,904 sh · $2.0B
2.34%
-9.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 12, 2026 · disclosed Jul 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.