Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$0.42
EPS est.
$0.10
EPS surprise
+324.24%
1-day move
-2.33%
Intel's earnings report showed a significant beat on EPS, indicating better-than-expected profitability. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.33%. This drop may reflect investor concerns about the lack of revenue details and future guidance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.42 | N/A | +324.24% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±2.1%
Intel Corporation (INTC) is a leading semiconductor company that designs and manufactures essential components for computers and data centers. As a key player in the Information Technology sector, Intel is crucial for advancements in AI, cloud computing, and consumer electronics.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Intel reported an EPS of $0.29, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.31% the next day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
7Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+299.84%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.25%
Overall, the market is optimistic about Intel's upcoming earnings, given its recent strong performance and positive surprises.
Bull case
If Intel continues to beat EPS estimates and shows strong data center revenue growth, it could drive the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining margins, it could lead to a negative reaction.
Key metrics to watch
Data Center Revenue
Expected to show strong growth year-over-year.Data center revenue is vital for Intel's growth, especially as demand for cloud services increases.
Gross Margin
Expected to remain stable or improve.Gross margin reflects the company's profitability and efficiency in managing production costs.
EPS (Earnings Per Share)
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the year-over-year growth rate for data center revenue?
This metric will indicate whether Intel is successfully capitalizing on the growing demand for cloud services.
Q2
How is Intel managing its gross margins amid rising production costs?
Margins are critical for profitability, and any decline could signal deeper issues within the company.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Intel's ability to drive data center revenue growth, particularly given its recent investments in AI.
Supporting evidence
Intel's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating market uncertainty.
The put/call ratio indicates more bullish sentiment among investors.
Key risk
If data center revenue comes in below $5B, it could undermine the growth narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The debate this quarter centers around Intel's ability to maintain profitability while expanding its market share in key segments.
Bull confirmed if
Data center revenue growth of +20% YoY or better with gross margin holding above 60%.
Bear confirmed if
Gross margin falls below 55% or data center revenue growth is flat or negative.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±15.71%
Historical Avg
±2.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating uncertainty or strong expectations for the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±15.7% while INTC has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.9%
30d HV
99.1%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
62.59%
of float
Insider
13.99%
of float
Holders
4,425
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
426,478,962 sh · $48.2B
8.46%
-4.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Intel beats expectations, history suggests a stock increase of around +0.33%, confirming bullish sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -3.50%, as seen in past quarters.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
7
3 buys·4 sells
Members
4
House + Senate
Est. Notional
$1.8M–$6.6M
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
285,230,183 sh · $32.3B
5.65%
1.1%
State Street Corporation
216,849,675 sh · $24.5B
4.30%
1.2%
Nvidia Corp
214,776,632 sh · $24.3B
4.26%
Flat
Invesco Ltd.
157,902,890 sh · $17.9B
3.13%
2.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
2 trades
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 24, 2026 · disclosed Aug 21, 2026
$250,001.00–$500,000.00
Traded Jul 24, 2026 · disclosed Aug 21, 2026
$500,001.00–$1.0M
Traded Jul 21, 2026 · disclosed Aug 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 16, 2026 · disclosed Jun 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 10, 2026 · disclosed Jun 24, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.