Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±13.9%
EPS beat rate
88%
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±9.6%
Intel Corporation (INTC) is a leading technology company that designs and manufactures semiconductor products. As a key player in the information technology sector, Intel is crucial for powering devices and systems across various industries, including AI and cloud computing.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Intel reported an impressive EPS of $0.42, significantly surpassing expectations. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the strong earnings surprise.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
7Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+299.84%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.25%
Overall, analysts are cautiously optimistic about Intel's upcoming earnings, especially following recent strong performance. However, concerns about market competition and supply chain challenges linger.
Bull case
If Intel continues to beat earnings expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal a robust recovery and increased market confidence.
Bear case
On the other hand, if Intel fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price, reflecting ongoing challenges in the semiconductor industry.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.42EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Intel is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth is vital to assess the company's ability to expand its market share and meet demand in a competitive environment.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3 2026?
The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether Intel can maintain its positive momentum and meet or exceed market expectations.
Q2
How is Intel addressing supply chain challenges?
Supply chain issues have impacted many tech companies; how Intel navigates these challenges will be critical for its future growth and profitability.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Intel's ability to leverage its recent technological advancements in AI and cloud computing, which could drive higher-than-expected demand.
Supporting evidence
Intel's recent EPS surprises indicate a strong operational turnaround.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating investor uncertainty about the earnings outcome.
The historical trend of earnings beats may not fully account for Intel's evolving product mix.
Key risk
If Intel's guidance indicates strong demand for its new AI products, it could shift market sentiment dramatically.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around Intel's ability to sustain its recent earnings surprises while managing ongoing industry challenges.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.45 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.30 would raise concerns about Intel's ability to compete effectively in the semiconductor market.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.92%
Historical Avg
±2.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±13.9% while INTC has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
64.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors
Fade rate: 14 of 29 (48%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 14 of 29 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of -2.2% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
62.59%
of float
Insider
13.99%
of float
Holders
4,425
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
426,478,962 sh · $48.2B
8.46%
-4.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Intel beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 0.79% on the next trading day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted response as investors reassess future growth.
Miss
If Intel misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 3.50%, reflecting market disappointment.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
7
3 buys·4 sells
Members
4
House + Senate
Est. Notional
$1.8M–$6.6M
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Gross Margin
N/AGross margin reflects the efficiency of production and pricing strategies, which are critical for maintaining profitability.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
285,230,183 sh · $32.3B
5.65%
1.1%
State Street Corporation
216,849,675 sh · $24.5B
4.30%
1.2%
Nvidia Corp
214,776,632 sh · $24.3B
4.26%
Flat
Invesco Ltd.
157,902,890 sh · $17.9B
3.13%
2.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
2 trades
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 24, 2026 · disclosed Aug 21, 2026
$250,001.00–$500,000.00
Traded Jul 24, 2026 · disclosed Aug 21, 2026
$500,001.00–$1.0M
Traded Jul 21, 2026 · disclosed Aug 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 16, 2026 · disclosed Jun 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 10, 2026 · disclosed Jun 24, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.