Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Apr 28, 2026
EPS actual
$1.49
EPS est.
$1.25
EPS surprise
+18.73%
1-day move
+0.09%
Itron's strong EPS performance indicates better-than-expected profitability, which contributed to a slight increase in stock price. However, the lack of revenue data and guidance may leave investors cautious about future performance. The stock's modest gain reflects a positive reaction to the earnings surprise, despite uncertainties ahead.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.49 | $1.24 | +18.73% |
| Revenue | N/A | $572M | N/A |
Management expressed satisfaction with the EPS beat, highlighting ongoing efforts to improve efficiency. However, they did not provide specific guidance for future quarters.
We are pleased with our EPS performance this quarter.
Our focus remains on driving operational efficiencies.
Itron, Inc. (ITRI) operates in the Information Technology sector, focusing on electronic equipment and instruments. The company plays a crucial role in providing technology solutions for utilities and cities, helping them manage energy and water resources more efficiently.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Itron reported an EPS of $2.46, exceeding expectations by 12.53%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 7.91% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+23.42%
Avg 1-day reaction
+2.22%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Itron's upcoming earnings, expecting solid EPS and revenue figures. The company has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, which could influence market sentiment.
Bull case
If Itron exceeds expectations, it could signal strong demand for its solutions, potentially leading to increased investor confidence and stock price appreciation.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it could raise concerns about market demand and operational challenges, leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$1.24EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$572MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Itron's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.24?
A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and support a positive stock reaction.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?
Management's outlook on revenue growth will be critical in assessing the company's trajectory and market demand.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of Itron's recent investments in smart grid technology, which could drive higher demand than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Itron's historical EPS beat rate is 100%, suggesting a strong likelihood of exceeding expectations.
The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility that may not be fully reflected in consensus estimates.
Key risk
If management indicates stronger-than-expected demand for smart grid solutions, it could challenge current revenue forecasts.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will indicate whether Itron can sustain its growth momentum amid market challenges.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.28 or higher, coupled with strong revenue growth, would confirm the bullish sentiment.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.18 or disappointing revenue figures would validate the bearish outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±17.43%
Historical Avg
±10.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±19.1% while ITRI has averaged ±10.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.0%
30d HV
40.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
124.97%
of float
Insider
1.79%
of float
Holders
590
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
7,131,562 sh · $610.3M
16.29%
-0.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Itron beats expectations, history suggests a potential average stock move of +0.62%, confirming strong demand and operational success.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should Itron miss earnings expectations, the stock could drop significantly, with historical patterns indicating an average move of -2.91%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,497,943 sh · $299.4M
7.99%
-0.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,000,004 sh · $171.2M
4.57%
-0.7%
Impax Asset Management Group plc
1,926,905 sh · $164.9M
4.40%
-12.1%
State Street Corporation
1,810,117 sh · $154.9M
4.13%
0.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.