Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Itron Inc. is a technology company that provides solutions for energy and water resource management....
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
8Q
EPS Beat Rate
100%
Avg EPS Surprise
+27.32%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.62%
In Q4 2025, Itron reported an EPS of $2.46, exceeding estimates by 12.53%. The stock reacted positively, increasing by nearly 8% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Itron to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.24 and revenue of $572 million. The company has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, which adds to positive sentiment.
Bull Case
If Itron can deliver an EPS above the consensus and show strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its solutions, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the recent volatility.
EPS
$1.24Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$572MTotal revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will Itron's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $572 million?
Revenue performance is critical to understanding market demand and the company's growth trajectory.
Q2
Can Itron maintain or improve its EPS above the consensus of $1.24?
A strong EPS performance would reinforce investor confidence and could lead to a positive stock reaction.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Itron's ability to capitalize on increasing demand for smart metering solutions, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting Evidence
Itron's recent product innovations may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.
The company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates suggests potential for upside.
Options pricing indicates a lower expected move than historical averages, suggesting the market may be underestimating volatility.
Key Risk
If Itron's revenue growth exceeds $580 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Itron can sustain its recent performance amidst competitive pressures and economic conditions.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $1.28 or higher, coupled with revenue growth above $580 million, would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $1.18 or revenue below $565 million would validate the bear case.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±4.3%
Historical Avg
±9.1%
The options market is pricing in a moderate move, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±4.3% while ITRI has averaged ±9.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
30d HV
39.7%
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Itron beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.62% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should Itron miss expectations, the average historical reaction indicates a potential decline of around 0.62%, reflecting investor disappointment.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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