Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Apr 30, 2026
EPS actual
$2.66
EPS est.
$2.55
EPS surprise
+4.23%
1-day move
-2.88%
Illinois Tool Works reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which indicates strong performance relative to analyst expectations. However, the stock fell by nearly 3% in reaction to the earnings report, suggesting that investors may have been disappointed by the lack of revenue information and guidance. The market often reacts to uncertainty, and the absence of additional context from management may have contributed to the stock's decline.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.66 | $2.56 | +4.23% |
| Revenue | N/A | $4.0B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results. Further insights from management are not available at this time.
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) is a global industrial company that specializes in manufacturing a wide range of products and equipment for various sectors, including automotive, construction, and food processing. With a market cap of $76 billion, ITW plays a significant role in the industrial machinery and supplies industry, making it a key player in the broader industrial sector.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, ITW reported an EPS of $2.72, beating estimates by 1.30%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.56% the following day.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+9.22%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.23%
Analysts expect ITW to report strong earnings, with a consensus EPS of $2.56 and revenue of $4.0 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth or challenges in demand.
Bull case
If ITW exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if ITW misses EPS or revenue targets, it may signal underlying issues in demand or operational challenges, potentially leading to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$2.56EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well ITW has managed costs and generated income.
Revenue
$4.0BRevenue growth is essential for assessing the company's overall performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ITW's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.56?
A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in ITW's profitability and operational efficiency, potentially boosting the stock.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in key segments?
Understanding revenue drivers will help assess demand trends and the company's ability to navigate market challenges.
—
Est. EPS
$0.76
Est. Rev
$17.1B
Impl. Move
±2.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate ITW's ability to leverage operational efficiencies and cost management, which could lead to better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
ITW has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting strong management performance.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.
Recent performance trends show resilience in industrial demand, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key risk
If ITW's revenue growth exceeds $4.1 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating ITW's ability to sustain growth amid potential economic headwinds, making these metrics critical.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.60 or higher with revenue exceeding $4.1 billion would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.53 or revenue falling short of $4.0 billion would validate the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.8%
Historical Avg
±2.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 4.8%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±4.8% while ITW has averaged ±2.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
22.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
86.79%
of float
Insider
0.37%
of float
Holders
2,496
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Briar Hall Management LLC
25,811,219 sh · $6.7B
9.06%
-0.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ITW beats estimates, history suggests the stock could react positively, with an average one-day move of around 2.39%.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.06% when they beat.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
5
0 buys·5 sells
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$96,005.00–$265,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
4 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
23,279,289 sh · $6.1B
8.17%
-0.4%
State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co
21,029,900 sh · $5.5B
7.38%
Flat
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
17,483,266 sh · $4.6B
6.14%
0.3%
State Street Corporation
12,788,570 sh · $3.3B
4.49%
1.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 9, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Sep 4, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$50,001.00–$100,000.00
Traded Sep 2, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Aug 31, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.