Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 28, 2026
EPS actual
$2.84
EPS est.
$2.80
EPS surprise
+1.39%
1-day move
+3.63%
Illinois Tool Works Inc. reported a better-than-expected EPS for the quarter, which likely contributed to the positive stock reaction of 3.63%. However, there was no revenue figure provided, making it difficult to assess overall performance. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS beat but will need to wait for further details to understand the company's trajectory.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.84 | N/A | +1.39% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) is a leading manufacturer of industrial machinery and components, serving diverse sectors including automotive, construction, and food equipment. With a market cap of $83 billion, ITW plays a crucial role in the industrial supply chain, making it a key player in the broader industrials sector.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, ITW reported an EPS of $2.66, exceeding expectations by 4.23%. However, the stock dropped 2.88% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+9.22%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.23%
Overall, the market is cautiously optimistic about ITW's upcoming earnings, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about revenue growth and margins may temper enthusiasm.
Bull case
If ITW can deliver strong EPS and demonstrate solid revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations for revenue growth or shows signs of margin compression, it could lead to a significant sell-off.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?
EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment.
Q2
How is revenue growth trending in key segments?
Understanding revenue growth in critical areas will provide insight into ITW's market position and demand.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating ITW's ability to leverage operational efficiencies in a challenging environment, potentially leading to stronger margins than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
ITW has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management performance.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
Recent trends in industrial demand may not be fully reflected in consensus estimates.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could invalidate bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on ITW's ability to maintain profitability amidst potential economic headwinds.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.75 or higher would confirm strong profitability and market demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.50 would raise concerns about profitability and could lead to a sell-off.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.21%
Historical Avg
±2.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±10.2% while ITW has averaged ±2.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
20.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
86.79%
of float
Insider
0.37%
of float
Holders
2,496
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Briar Hall Management LLC
25,811,219 sh · $6.7B
9.06%
-0.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ITW beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +2.49%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around -0.16%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
5
0 buys·5 sells
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$96,005.00–$265,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
4 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
23,279,289 sh · $6.1B
8.17%
-0.4%
State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co
21,029,900 sh · $5.5B
7.38%
Flat
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
17,483,266 sh · $4.6B
6.14%
0.3%
State Street Corporation
12,788,570 sh · $3.3B
4.49%
1.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 9, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Sep 4, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$50,001.00–$100,000.00
Traded Sep 2, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Aug 31, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.