Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Aug 5, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.25
EPS est.
$-0.23
EPS surprise
-10.13%
1-day move
-2.13%
Joby Aviation reported a loss of $0.25 per share, which was below expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.13%. The lack of revenue figures and guidance may raise concerns among investors about the company's financial health and future prospects.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.25 | N/A | -10.13% |
| Revenue | — | N/A | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Joby Aviation, Inc. is an innovative company in the passenger airline industry focused on developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. With a market cap of $8 billion, Joby aims to revolutionize urban air mobility, making air travel more accessible and environmentally friendly.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Joby reported an EPS of -$0.12, outperforming expectations by 41.75%. However, revenue details were not disclosed, and the stock saw a slight decline the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-34.33%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.12%
Investors are keenly watching Joby's upcoming earnings report, especially given the company's recent performance surprises. The lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.
Bull case
If Joby continues to beat EPS estimates, it could indicate strong operational progress and investor confidence in its eVTOL technology.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides disappointing guidance, it could raise concerns about its long-term viability and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the updated timeline for commercial operations of the eVTOL aircraft?
The market will closely evaluate this timeline as it directly impacts revenue potential and investor confidence in Joby's business model.
Q2
How does Joby plan to address production challenges or delays?
Any insights into production capabilities will be critical for assessing the company's ability to meet market demand and fulfill orders.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±12.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Joby's potential for operational efficiency and market demand for eVTOLs, especially given recent technological advancements.
Supporting evidence
Joby has consistently surprised on EPS, indicating stronger-than-expected operational performance.
The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting traders anticipate volatility that may not align with current consensus.
Historical patterns show that Joby has a tendency to hold or extend moves after earnings, indicating potential for positive surprises.
Key risk
If Joby provides a clear and aggressive timeline for commercial operations, it could significantly shift market sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The debate centers around Joby's ability to transition from development to commercial operations, which is crucial for its future growth.
Bull confirmed if
A clear commitment to a commercial launch timeline within the next 12 months would support the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
Any indication of significant production delays or failure to meet operational milestones would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±31.83%
Historical Avg
±1.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±31.8% while JOBY has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
83.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 19 of 24 (79%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.6% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$761,213.86
126,616 sh
8 insiders
Net
$761,213.86
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 9 open-market trades
$76,240.41
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
45.35%
of float
Insider
32.26%
of float
Holders
647
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
TOYOTA MOTOR CORP/
128,454,401 sh · $738.6M
12.92%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Joby beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +1.13%, confirming growing investor confidence.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.
Miss
Should Joby miss expectations, history suggests an average one-day move of +0.31%, indicating potential downward pressure on the stock.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$380,625.00
Net selling
$93,944.55
Net selling
$64,795.50
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $6.09
62,500 sh
$380,625.00
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $5.95
15,789 sh
$93,944.55
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $5.95
10,890 sh
$64,795.50
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $5.95
9,575 sh
$56,971.25
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $5.95
9,331 sh
$55,519.45
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
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13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.