Equity Profile

KEY

KeyCorp

FinancialsDiversified Banks$23.6B

Jul21Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

KeyCorp is a diversified bank that provides a range of financial services, including retail banking, commercial banking, and investment services. With a market cap of $24 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in consumer and business lending.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well KeyCorp is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, which is crucial for banks' profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KEY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.46%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, KeyCorp reported an EPS of $0.44, exceeding expectations by 7.06%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.46% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about KeyCorp's upcoming earnings, especially given its consistent EPS surprises in recent quarters. However, the lack of specific guidance raises some uncertainty.

Bull Case

If KeyCorp continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the bank fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing growth, it could lead to a negative market reaction, especially given the high implied volatility in options.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this figure will be crucial in determining market sentiment.

How is loan growth trending?

Loan growth is a key driver of revenue for banks, and any slowdown could raise concerns about future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating KeyCorp's ability to maintain its EPS growth, given its track record of surprises. The lack of analyst estimates could lead to a mispricing of risk.

Supporting Evidence

KeyCorp has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.

The bank's diversified services may help it weather economic fluctuations better than peers.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly boost revenue and challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be closely watched as they could indicate whether KeyCorp can maintain its growth trajectory amid market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.46 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating continued strong performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.78%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect a notable reaction to the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.8% while KEY has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.0%

Calls (25K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (29K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If KeyCorp beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.52%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain relatively stable, reflecting cautious optimism from investors.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of around 1.46%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth trends and demand for credit.
2Management's outlook on net interest margins in the current economic environment.
3Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
4Insights into consumer behavior and spending patterns affecting retail banking.
5Any commentary on regulatory impacts or changes in the financial landscape.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well KeyCorp is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, which is crucial for banks' profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KEY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.46%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, KeyCorp reported an EPS of $0.44, exceeding expectations by 7.06%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.46% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about KeyCorp's upcoming earnings, especially given its consistent EPS surprises in recent quarters. However, the lack of specific guidance raises some uncertainty.

Bull Case

If KeyCorp continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the bank fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing growth, it could lead to a negative market reaction, especially given the high implied volatility in options.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this figure will be crucial in determining market sentiment.

How is loan growth trending?

Loan growth is a key driver of revenue for banks, and any slowdown could raise concerns about future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating KeyCorp's ability to maintain its EPS growth, given its track record of surprises. The lack of analyst estimates could lead to a mispricing of risk.

Supporting Evidence

KeyCorp has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.

The bank's diversified services may help it weather economic fluctuations better than peers.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly boost revenue and challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be closely watched as they could indicate whether KeyCorp can maintain its growth trajectory amid market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.46 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating continued strong performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.78%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect a notable reaction to the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.8% while KEY has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.0%

Calls (25K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (29K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If KeyCorp beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.52%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain relatively stable, reflecting cautious optimism from investors.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of around 1.46%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth trends and demand for credit.
2Management's outlook on net interest margins in the current economic environment.
3Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
4Insights into consumer behavior and spending patterns affecting retail banking.
5Any commentary on regulatory impacts or changes in the financial landscape.