Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jun 17, 2026
EPS actual
$1.31
EPS est.
$0.94
EPS surprise
+39.66%
1-day move
-8.98%
CarMax reported a strong earnings per share that significantly exceeded expectations, indicating better profitability than analysts anticipated. However, the stock fell nearly 9% in reaction, suggesting that investors may have been disappointed by the lack of revenue information or other factors not disclosed in the earnings call. The absence of guidance may also have contributed to the negative stock reaction.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.31 | $0.96 | +39.66% |
| Revenue | N/A | $7.4B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
CarMax, Inc. is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., known for its no-haggle pricing and extensive inventory. As a part of the consumer discretionary sector, it is influenced by trends in consumer spending and the automotive market.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, CarMax reported an EPS of $0.34, significantly beating expectations. However, the stock fell sharply the next day, indicating market concerns despite the positive surprise.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+20.71%
Avg 1-day reaction
-6.13%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about CarMax's upcoming earnings, expecting it to report a modest EPS and revenue growth. However, the company's recent performance has raised concerns about its ability to maintain momentum.
Bull case
If CarMax can exceed the EPS estimate and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in consumer demand and improve investor sentiment.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing challenges in the used car market.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.96Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well CarMax is managing costs and sales.
Revenue
$7.4BRevenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for used vehicles.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will CarMax's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.96?
A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected demand and cost management, which would be crucial for restoring investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance will CarMax provide regarding future revenue growth?
Future revenue guidance will be critical in assessing the company's outlook and ability to navigate the current market challenges.
—
Est. EPS
$1.65
Est. Rev
$450M
Impl. Move
±12.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent consumer trends that favor used cars, which could lead to stronger-than-expected sales.
Supporting evidence
Despite recent earnings misses, CarMax has consistently shown resilience in a challenging market.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.
CarMax's unique business model and no-haggle pricing may attract more buyers in a tightening economy.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in above $1.10, it could significantly shift market sentiment and expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether CarMax can sustain profitability amidst fluctuating consumer demand and economic conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.10 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.83 would indicate significant challenges in the business.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±14.06%
Historical Avg
±10.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±14.1% while KMX has averaged ±10.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
42.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If CarMax beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 6.5%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react moderately, reflecting cautious optimism without strong conviction.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 8.2%, reinforcing concerns about the company's performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
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1
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Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
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1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 19, 2026 · disclosed Sep 10, 2026
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