Equity Profile

KMX

CarMax, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$8.5B

Jun17Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2027Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., offering a wide selection of vehicles and a no-haggle pricing model....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well CarMax is managing costs and sales.

$0.96

Revenue

Total revenue reflects overall sales performance and demand for used cars, which is crucial in the current economic climate.

$7.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KMX Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., offering a wide selection of vehicles and a no-haggle pricing model. As consumer spending patterns shift, CarMax's performance is closely tied to the health of the automotive retail market and broader economic trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

-6.71%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2026, CarMax reported an EPS of $0.34, significantly beating expectations but still saw its stock drop by over 15% the following day. The mixed results have raised concerns about the company's ability to maintain momentum in a challenging market.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about CarMax's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest EPS of $0.96 on revenues of $7.4 billion. However, given the recent volatility in the stock price, investors are wary of potential surprises.

Bull Case

If CarMax can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate robust demand for used vehicles, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if CarMax misses earnings estimates or provides weak guidance, it could signal ongoing challenges in the automotive retail sector, resulting in further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.96

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well CarMax is managing costs and sales.

Revenue

$7.4B

Total revenue reflects overall sales performance and demand for used cars, which is crucial in the current economic climate.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will CarMax's revenue exceed $7.4 billion?

Revenue growth is critical to assess the company's demand and market position, especially in a competitive environment.

Can CarMax achieve an EPS of $0.96 or better?

Earnings per share is a direct measure of profitability, and exceeding this estimate could boost investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating CarMax's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions, potentially leading to stronger-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

CarMax's recent EPS surprises indicate potential for better-than-expected performance.

Options are pricing a significant move, suggesting that the market anticipates volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The debate centers around whether CarMax can maintain profitability and growth in a fluctuating market.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.10 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.83 would indicate significant challenges in the business model or market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.06%

Historical Avg

±9.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.1% while KMX has averaged ±9.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

42.6%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (70K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CarMax beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +6.59%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the market.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -8.19%, indicating investor disappointment and potential ongoing challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on inventory levels and pricing strategies.
2Insights into consumer demand trends for used vehicles.
3Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
4Any guidance on future earnings or market conditions.
5Responses to competitive pressures in the automotive retail space.

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Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., offering a wide selection of vehicles and a no-haggle pricing model....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well CarMax is managing costs and sales.

$0.96

Revenue

Total revenue reflects overall sales performance and demand for used cars, which is crucial in the current economic climate.

$7.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KMX Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

-6.71%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If CarMax can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate robust demand for used vehicles, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if CarMax misses earnings estimates or provides weak guidance, it could signal ongoing challenges in the automotive retail sector, resulting in further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.96

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well CarMax is managing costs and sales.

Revenue

$7.4B

Total revenue reflects overall sales performance and demand for used cars, which is crucial in the current economic climate.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will CarMax's revenue exceed $7.4 billion?

Revenue growth is critical to assess the company's demand and market position, especially in a competitive environment.

Can CarMax achieve an EPS of $0.96 or better?

Earnings per share is a direct measure of profitability, and exceeding this estimate could boost investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating CarMax's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions, potentially leading to stronger-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

CarMax's recent EPS surprises indicate potential for better-than-expected performance.

Options are pricing a significant move, suggesting that the market anticipates volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The debate centers around whether CarMax can maintain profitability and growth in a fluctuating market.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.10 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.83 would indicate significant challenges in the business model or market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.06%

Historical Avg

±9.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.1% while KMX has averaged ±9.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

42.6%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (70K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CarMax beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +6.59%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the market.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -8.19%, indicating investor disappointment and potential ongoing challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on inventory levels and pricing strategies.
2Insights into consumer demand trends for used vehicles.
3Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
4Any guidance on future earnings or market conditions.
5Responses to competitive pressures in the automotive retail space.