Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Dec 17, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±17.4%
EPS beat rate
63%
CarMax, Inc. is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., operating in the consumer discretionary sector. The company is significant as it provides a transparent and customer-friendly car buying experience, which is increasingly important in today's automotive retail landscape.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, CarMax reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.16, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 4.74% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+20.71%
Avg 1-day reaction
-6.13%
Overall, the market is cautiously optimistic about CarMax's upcoming earnings, especially after strong performance in the previous quarters. Investors are looking for signs of continued growth in used vehicle sales and profitability.
Bull case
If CarMax demonstrates strong sales growth and maintains or improves gross profit per unit, it could lead to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports weaker sales or declining profit margins, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and lead to a decline in stock value.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the growth rate of used vehicle sales compared to last year?
This metric will be crucial to assess whether CarMax is maintaining its market share in a competitive environment.
Q2
How has gross profit per unit changed this quarter?
Understanding this will provide insights into the company's pricing strategy and cost management effectiveness.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±18.8%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating CarMax's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and the growing demand for online car sales.
Supporting evidence
CarMax's recent investments in technology could significantly enhance its online sales capabilities.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential overreaction.
Strong sales growth in the previous quarter suggests momentum that may not be fully recognized.
Key risk
If used vehicle sales growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core thesis this quarter revolves around CarMax's ability to sustain sales growth and profitability in a challenging automotive retail environment.
Bull confirmed if
Used vehicle sales growth of 10% or more compared to last year would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A decline in gross profit per unit below $1,500 would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±17.42%
Historical Avg
±10.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.
Options are pricing ±17.4% while KMX has averaged ±10.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
35.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 11 of 29 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 18 of 29 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.2%, with a raw directional average of +2.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If CarMax beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.4%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may see limited movement as investors digest the commentary.
Miss
Should the company miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 10.69%, raising concerns about future performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
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Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 19, 2026 · disclosed Sep 10, 2026
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