Equity Profile

KNSL

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.

FinancialsProperty & Casualty Insurance$7.2B

Jul23Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) operates in the property and casualty insurance sector, focusing on specialty insurance products....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and Kinsale has consistently beaten estimates in the past.

$5.11

Underwriting Profit

This metric reflects the company's ability to manage risk and expenses effectively, impacting overall profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNSL Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) operates in the property and casualty insurance sector, focusing on specialty insurance products. With a market cap of $7 billion, the company is significant in providing coverage for niche markets, which can be crucial for risk management in various industries.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.09%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Kinsale reported an EPS of $5.11, surpassing expectations by 8.84%. Despite the positive earnings surprise, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on specialty insurance markets.
Commitment to maintaining strong underwriting discipline.
Plans to expand product offerings in targeted niches.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Kinsale's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of specific guidance raises some uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Kinsale continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal robust demand for its specialty insurance products, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, any signs of increased claims or a deteriorating combined ratio could raise concerns about profitability, potentially leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$5.11

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and Kinsale has consistently beaten estimates in the past.

Underwriting Profit

N/A

This metric reflects the company's ability to manage risk and expenses effectively, impacting overall profitability.

Combined Ratio

N/A

A lower combined ratio indicates better underwriting performance, which is vital for insurance companies.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given Kinsale's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for setting market expectations.

What is the outlook for the combined ratio?

A clear indication of the combined ratio will help investors assess the company's underwriting performance and risk management.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of Kinsale's niche market focus, which could lead to stronger-than-expected EPS growth.

Supporting Evidence

Kinsale has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a large move, suggesting that investors are anticipating significant news.

Kinsale's focus on specialty insurance could provide resilience against broader market downturns.

Key Risk

If the combined ratio improves significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Kinsale's ability to maintain its strong performance amid potential market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.50 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.80 or a combined ratio above 100% would signal potential profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.42%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock, indicating heightened investor uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.4% while KNSL has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

30.3%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (3K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Kinsale beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +0.45%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of around -0.56%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches in specialty insurance.
2Management's commentary on claims trends and risk exposure.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and market share.
4Discussion on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
5Guidance on future growth prospects and market conditions.

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Company Snapshot

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) operates in the property and casualty insurance sector, focusing on specialty insurance products....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and Kinsale has consistently beaten estimates in the past.

$5.11

Underwriting Profit

This metric reflects the company's ability to manage risk and expenses effectively, impacting overall profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNSL Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.09%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Kinsale reported an EPS of $5.11, surpassing expectations by 8.84%. Despite the positive earnings surprise, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on specialty insurance markets.
Commitment to maintaining strong underwriting discipline.
Plans to expand product offerings in targeted niches.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Kinsale's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of specific guidance raises some uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Kinsale continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal robust demand for its specialty insurance products, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, any signs of increased claims or a deteriorating combined ratio could raise concerns about profitability, potentially leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$5.11

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and Kinsale has consistently beaten estimates in the past.

Underwriting Profit

N/A

This metric reflects the company's ability to manage risk and expenses effectively, impacting overall profitability.

Combined Ratio

N/A

A lower combined ratio indicates better underwriting performance, which is vital for insurance companies.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given Kinsale's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for setting market expectations.

What is the outlook for the combined ratio?

A clear indication of the combined ratio will help investors assess the company's underwriting performance and risk management.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of Kinsale's niche market focus, which could lead to stronger-than-expected EPS growth.

Supporting Evidence

Kinsale has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a large move, suggesting that investors are anticipating significant news.

Kinsale's focus on specialty insurance could provide resilience against broader market downturns.

Key Risk

If the combined ratio improves significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Kinsale's ability to maintain its strong performance amid potential market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.50 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.80 or a combined ratio above 100% would signal potential profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.42%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock, indicating heightened investor uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.4% while KNSL has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

30.3%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (3K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Kinsale beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +0.45%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of around -0.56%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches in specialty insurance.
2Management's commentary on claims trends and risk exposure.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and market share.
4Discussion on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
5Guidance on future growth prospects and market conditions.