Equity Profile

KNX

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.

IndustrialsCargo Ground Transportation$11.9B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing trucking services across North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share, which is crucial in a competitive industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing trucking services across North America. With a market cap of $12 billion, the company is influenced by trends in consumer spending and supply chain dynamics, making its performance relevant to the broader industrial sector.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-10.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Knight-Swift reported an EPS of $0.09, significantly below the expected $0.28, leading to a stock decline of 1.36% the following day. This miss highlights ongoing challenges in the company's operational efficiency and market conditions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management is focused on improving operational efficiencies.
They aim to enhance customer service and satisfaction.
The company is exploring new markets to drive growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Knight-Swift's upcoming earnings are cautious, given the recent earnings miss and the lack of analyst estimates. Investors are looking for signs of improvement in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

If Knight-Swift can demonstrate a rebound in EPS and revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in operational efficiency and market demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show improvement or provides weak guidance, it could reinforce concerns about its ability to navigate current market challenges, leading to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss last quarter, the market will closely scrutinize EPS to assess whether the company is regaining profitability.

How is Knight-Swift addressing operational efficiencies?

Investors need clarity on the company's strategies to improve margins and overall performance in a challenging market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be overly focused on the recent earnings miss without considering potential operational improvements and market recovery. Knight-Swift's strategic initiatives could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's actual performance.

Historical data shows that the stock has reacted positively to operational improvements in the past, suggesting potential upside.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.28, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis centers on whether Knight-Swift can recover from recent earnings misses and improve its operational efficiency.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to an EPS of at least $0.28 would confirm the bull case, indicating improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.09 would reinforce bearish sentiment, suggesting ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.0%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of approximately 16%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.0% while KNX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (116K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knight-Swift beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.47%, confirming recovery in profitability.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty in future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.69%, as investors reassess the company's ability to navigate current challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on cost-cutting measures and their expected impact on margins.
2Updates on customer demand trends and how they are affecting revenue.
3Any new market opportunities or partnerships that could drive growth.
4Management's outlook on the transportation sector and economic conditions.
5Insights into operational challenges and how the company plans to address them.

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Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing trucking services across North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share, which is crucial in a competitive industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-10.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Management is focused on improving operational efficiencies.
They aim to enhance customer service and satisfaction.
The company is exploring new markets to drive growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Knight-Swift can demonstrate a rebound in EPS and revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in operational efficiency and market demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show improvement or provides weak guidance, it could reinforce concerns about its ability to navigate current market challenges, leading to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss last quarter, the market will closely scrutinize EPS to assess whether the company is regaining profitability.

How is Knight-Swift addressing operational efficiencies?

Investors need clarity on the company's strategies to improve margins and overall performance in a challenging market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's actual performance.

Historical data shows that the stock has reacted positively to operational improvements in the past, suggesting potential upside.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.28, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis centers on whether Knight-Swift can recover from recent earnings misses and improve its operational efficiency.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to an EPS of at least $0.28 would confirm the bull case, indicating improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.09 would reinforce bearish sentiment, suggesting ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.0%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of approximately 16%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.0% while KNX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (116K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knight-Swift beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.47%, confirming recovery in profitability.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty in future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.69%, as investors reassess the company's ability to navigate current challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on cost-cutting measures and their expected impact on margins.
2Updates on customer demand trends and how they are affecting revenue.
3Any new market opportunities or partnerships that could drive growth.
4Management's outlook on the transportation sector and economic conditions.
5Insights into operational challenges and how the company plans to address them.