Equity Profile

KNX

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.

IndustrialsCargo Ground Transportation$12.8B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a leading provider of cargo ground transportation services in North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to capture market share and respond to demand fluctuations in the transportation sector.

N/A

Operating Margin

Operating margin indicates how efficiently the company is managing its costs relative to its revenue, which is vital in a competitive industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a leading provider of cargo ground transportation services in North America. As a key player in the industrial sector, the company plays a vital role in the supply chain, especially as consumer spending and e-commerce continue to shape logistics demands.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-10.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Knight-Swift reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09, significantly missing the estimate of $0.28. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.36% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Knight-Swift's upcoming earnings, especially after a disappointing Q1. The focus will be on whether the company can rebound and meet or exceed expectations.

Bull Case

If Knight-Swift shows strong revenue growth and improved operating margins, it could signal a recovery in demand and operational efficiency, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings estimates and shows weak freight volume, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and overall market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the revenue growth rate be this quarter?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's recovery and ability to capitalize on market demand.

How has freight volume changed compared to the previous quarter?

Freight volume is a key indicator of operational performance and demand for Knight-Swift's services, impacting future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a recovery in freight demand, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Knight-Swift has historically shown resilience in recovering from downturns, as seen in previous quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are bracing for volatility, which could be a sign of underlying positive sentiment.

The company's operational adjustments may not yet be fully reflected in analysts' expectations.

Key Risk

If freight volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Knight-Swift can demonstrate a rebound in revenue and operational efficiency after a disappointing previous quarter.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue growth rate of over 10% would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery in demand.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue decline or flat growth would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges in the market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.0%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 16% following the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±16.0% while KNX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (116K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (18K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knight-Swift beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.47%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of +0.69% when expectations are not met.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on freight volume trends compared to the previous quarter.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into customer demand and market conditions.
4Guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Any strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing profitability.

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Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a leading provider of cargo ground transportation services in North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to capture market share and respond to demand fluctuations in the transportation sector.

N/A

Operating Margin

Operating margin indicates how efficiently the company is managing its costs relative to its revenue, which is vital in a competitive industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-10.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Knight-Swift reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09, significantly missing the estimate of $0.28. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.36% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Knight-Swift's upcoming earnings, especially after a disappointing Q1. The focus will be on whether the company can rebound and meet or exceed expectations.

Bull Case

If Knight-Swift shows strong revenue growth and improved operating margins, it could signal a recovery in demand and operational efficiency, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings estimates and shows weak freight volume, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and overall market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the revenue growth rate be this quarter?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's recovery and ability to capitalize on market demand.

How has freight volume changed compared to the previous quarter?

Freight volume is a key indicator of operational performance and demand for Knight-Swift's services, impacting future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a recovery in freight demand, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Knight-Swift has historically shown resilience in recovering from downturns, as seen in previous quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are bracing for volatility, which could be a sign of underlying positive sentiment.

The company's operational adjustments may not yet be fully reflected in analysts' expectations.

Key Risk

If freight volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Knight-Swift can demonstrate a rebound in revenue and operational efficiency after a disappointing previous quarter.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue growth rate of over 10% would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery in demand.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue decline or flat growth would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges in the market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.0%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 16% following the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±16.0% while KNX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (116K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (18K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knight-Swift beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.47%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of +0.69% when expectations are not met.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on freight volume trends compared to the previous quarter.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into customer demand and market conditions.
4Guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Any strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing profitability.