Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
EPS actual
$0.63
EPS est.
$0.49
EPS surprise
+27.79%
1-day move
-0.87%
Knight-Swift's earnings report shows a strong performance in EPS, exceeding expectations significantly. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.87%. The lack of revenue data and management commentary may have contributed to investor uncertainty.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.63 | N/A | +27.79% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation industry, providing truckload and logistics services across North America. With a market cap of $12 billion, the company is significant in the industrial sector, especially as demand for freight services fluctuates with consumer spending and economic conditions.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Knight-Swift reported an EPS of $0.09, significantly missing the expected $0.28. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.36% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-5.65%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.59%
Overall, expectations for Knight-Swift's upcoming earnings are mixed, given the recent earnings miss and lack of guidance. Investors are keen to see if the company can rebound and provide a clearer outlook.
Bull case
The optimistic view hinges on a potential recovery in freight demand and improved operational efficiency, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings and revenue growth.
Bear case
Conversely, the pessimistic outlook suggests continued challenges in the freight market, leading to further earnings misses and declining stock performance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?
The EPS figure will be crucial in assessing whether Knight-Swift can recover from its recent earnings miss and meet or exceed market expectations.
Q2
How is the company addressing operational efficiencies?
Investors will be looking for specific strategies to improve margins and profitability, especially in a challenging freight environment.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Knight-Swift's potential for a rebound in freight demand, as recent economic indicators suggest a recovery in consumer spending.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 16% move, indicating higher volatility than the historical average of 1.34%.
Knight-Swift has a history of surprising the market, with a 50% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.
Key risk
If the EPS exceeds $0.30, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor confidence.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Knight-Swift can turn around its recent performance and provide a positive outlook.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.09 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing struggles in the business.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±16.00%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of approximately 16% in either direction, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.
Options are pricing ±16.0% while KNX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
49.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.59%
of float
Insider
2.92%
of float
Holders
793
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
17,215,886 sh · $1.1B
10.58%
15.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Knight-Swift beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.47% on the day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction.
Miss
If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.69% on the day.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
8,559,415 sh · $544.5M
5.26%
1.2%
FMR, LLC
8,061,153 sh · $512.9M
4.95%
-17.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
7,061,941 sh · $449.3M
4.34%
0.4%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
6,459,119 sh · $410.9M
3.97%
-2.2%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.