Equity Profile

KNX

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.

IndustrialsCargo Ground Transportation$12.1B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing logistics and freight services across North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

This metric will indicate how well the company is adapting to changes in the logistics market and managing operational costs.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial measure of profitability and will help investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing logistics and freight services across North America. As a key component of the industrials sector, the company plays a vital role in supply chain management, which is increasingly important as consumer demand fluctuates and e-commerce continues to grow.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-10.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Knight-Swift reported an EPS of $0.09, significantly missing estimates of $0.28, which resulted in a 1.36% decline in stock price the following day. The company has faced challenges in maintaining profitability amid rising operational costs.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Knight-Swift's upcoming earnings report, especially after a disappointing Q1. The focus will be on whether the company can improve its profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Knight-Swift can show a rebound in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal that the company is effectively managing its costs and adapting to market demands, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to demonstrate improvement in key financial metrics, it may lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss in the previous quarter, this number will be crucial for assessing the company's recovery and operational efficiency.

How is Knight-Swift managing rising operational costs?

With increasing costs impacting profitability, insights into cost management strategies will be vital for understanding future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Knight-Swift to recover from its recent operational challenges, especially if they can demonstrate effective cost management.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 16% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not reflect the company's actual performance potential.

Historical data shows that Knight-Swift has a 50% EPS beat rate, suggesting a reasonable chance of exceeding expectations this quarter.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.28, it could shift market sentiment dramatically.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Knight-Swift can overcome recent challenges and return to profitability, making these metrics critical.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to an EPS of $0.28 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating effective cost management and revenue growth.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.09 would reinforce the bear case, suggesting ongoing operational difficulties.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.0%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of around 16% following the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±16.0% while KNX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (116K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knight-Swift beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.47%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react moderately, reflecting cautious optimism without strong conviction.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.69%, indicating continued investor concern.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
2Guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
3Insights into operational challenges faced in the logistics market.
4Details on customer demand trends and how they are impacting business.
5Management's outlook on the overall economic environment and its effects on operations.

See the full picture

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More Earnings This Week

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Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing logistics and freight services across North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

This metric will indicate how well the company is adapting to changes in the logistics market and managing operational costs.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial measure of profitability and will help investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-10.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to demonstrate improvement in key financial metrics, it may lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss in the previous quarter, this number will be crucial for assessing the company's recovery and operational efficiency.

How is Knight-Swift managing rising operational costs?

With increasing costs impacting profitability, insights into cost management strategies will be vital for understanding future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Knight-Swift to recover from its recent operational challenges, especially if they can demonstrate effective cost management.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 16% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not reflect the company's actual performance potential.

Historical data shows that Knight-Swift has a 50% EPS beat rate, suggesting a reasonable chance of exceeding expectations this quarter.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.28, it could shift market sentiment dramatically.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Knight-Swift can overcome recent challenges and return to profitability, making these metrics critical.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to an EPS of $0.28 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating effective cost management and revenue growth.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.09 would reinforce the bear case, suggesting ongoing operational difficulties.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.0%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of around 16% following the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±16.0% while KNX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (116K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knight-Swift beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.47%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react moderately, reflecting cautious optimism without strong conviction.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.69%, indicating continued investor concern.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
2Guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
3Insights into operational challenges faced in the logistics market.
4Details on customer demand trends and how they are impacting business.
5Management's outlook on the overall economic environment and its effects on operations.