Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Mon, Mar 18, 2019
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±4.4%
EPS beat rate
75%
Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS) is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative gene therapies for skin diseases. With a market cap of $10 billion, it operates in the health care sector, which is increasingly important as advancements in biotechnology continue to shape treatment options for various conditions.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, Krystal Biotech reported an EPS of $1.79, exceeding expectations by 5.11%. However, the stock dropped 8.37% the following day, indicating potential investor concerns despite the earnings beat.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+23.73%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.88%
Overall, analysts expect Krystal Biotech to maintain its strong performance, particularly in EPS, but there is uncertainty regarding revenue figures.
Bull case
If the company beats EPS estimates again, it could indicate robust demand for its products and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
A miss on EPS or lack of revenue growth could raise concerns about the sustainability of its business model and lead to a significant stock decline.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Expected to be around $1.70.EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue Growth
N/AWhile specific revenue estimates are not available, any growth in revenue would signal strong demand for their therapies.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the EPS for Q3-2026?
EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a strong performance could bolster investor confidence.
Q2
Will there be any updates on revenue growth or new partnerships?
Updates on revenue and partnerships are essential for understanding the company's market position and future prospects.
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Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
—
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Krystal Biotech to exceed EPS expectations based on its recent performance trends.
Supporting evidence
The company has a 75% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing a smaller move than the historical average, suggesting potential upside.
Recent earnings surprises have led to significant stock movements.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in below $1.70, it could signal deeper issues with profitability.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching EPS as a sign of the company's financial health, especially after recent mixed results.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.80 or higher would confirm strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.70 would raise concerns about profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.41%
Historical Avg
±8.0%
The options market is pricing in a modest move, suggesting that investors are anticipating some volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±4.4% while KRYS has averaged ±8.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
29.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Health Care
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.7%, with a raw directional average of -0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Krystal Biotech beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.18%, confirming strong demand for its therapies.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of about 14.05%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future growth.
The lines on the call that would change the story.