Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$0.12
EPS est.
$0.42
EPS surprise
-71.63%
1-day move
-1.22%
Lazard, Inc. (LAZ) is a global investment banking and financial advisory firm that provides services to corporations, governments, and institutions. With a market cap of $4 billion, Lazard plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in investment banking and brokerage services, which are influenced by market conditions and economic trends.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Lazard reported an EPS of $0.42, which was below the expected $0.52, resulting in a stock decline of 6.95% the following day. The company has faced challenges in meeting earnings expectations recently.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+18.23%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.23%
Overall, expectations for Lazard's upcoming earnings are cautious due to recent earnings misses and uncertain market conditions. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue.
Bull case
If Lazard can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved profitability, it could signal a turnaround in its performance, leading to positive investor sentiment.
Bear case
Conversely, continued earnings misses or weak guidance could further erode investor confidence, leading to a decline in the stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Lazard's EPS exceed $0.42 this quarter?
A positive EPS could indicate a recovery in profitability and help restore investor confidence after recent misses.
Q2
What are the revenue expectations for Lazard's advisory services?
Revenue performance in advisory services is critical for understanding the company's ability to generate business in a challenging market.
—
Est. EPS
$0.34
Est. Rev
$86M
Impl. Move
±11.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Lazard's potential for recovery, as recent market conditions have improved, and demand for advisory services could rebound.
Supporting evidence
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility which could favor a positive outcome.
Lazard's historical performance shows a strong beat rate of 75%, suggesting that the company has a track record of exceeding expectations.
Recent market trends indicate a potential uptick in M&A activity, which could benefit Lazard's advisory services.
Key risk
If advisory revenue exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Lazard can recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate solid revenue growth.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue growth rate above 10% would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand for Lazard's services.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.42 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about ongoing profitability challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±21.0%
Historical Avg
±3.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move of around 21% in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±21.0% while LAZ has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
42.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
105.47%
of float
Insider
0.90%
of float
Holders
454
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
FMR, LLC
11,152,391 sh · $399.5M
10.09%
5.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Lazard beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 2.29%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may remain relatively flat as investors assess future prospects.
Miss
If Lazard misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.21%, further shaking investor confidence.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
9,038,924 sh · $323.8M
8.18%
19.3%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
8,962,415 sh · $321.0M
8.11%
-6.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
6,136,015 sh · $219.8M
5.55%
23.9%
Ariel Investments, LLC
5,755,404 sh · $206.2M
5.21%
-1.2%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.