Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
EPS actual
$0.09
EPS est.
$0.07
EPS surprise
+34.33%
1-day move
+1.05%
Liberty Energy Inc. reported an EPS of $0.09, exceeding expectations by 34.33%. However, no revenue figures were provided. The stock reacted positively, rising 1.05%, likely reflecting investor confidence in the earnings surprise.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.09 | N/A | +34.33% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Liberty Energy Inc. is a company in the energy sector, specifically focused on oil and gas equipment and services. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a critical role in supporting the energy industry, which is influenced by global demand for oil and gas.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Liberty Energy reported an EPS of $0.06, significantly beating expectations of a loss. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.85% the following day.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+0.15%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.33%
Overall, expectations for Liberty Energy are cautious, given the mixed performance in previous quarters. Investors are looking for clarity on profitability and revenue trends.
Bull case
If the company continues to outperform EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand for energy services, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports declining margins, it could raise concerns about its competitiveness and profitability in a challenging market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
EPS performance is critical for assessing profitability and investor sentiment, especially after a strong surprise last quarter.
Q2
What are the revenue expectations for this quarter?
Revenue growth is essential for understanding the company's market position and ability to capitalize on energy demand.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Liberty Energy to capitalize on rising oil prices and increased demand for energy services, which could lead to better-than-expected financial results.
Supporting evidence
The recent EPS surprise of +146.15% indicates a potential trend of stronger performance.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, which could reflect investor optimism that isn't fully captured in consensus estimates.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS significantly above $0.10, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core thesis revolves around whether Liberty Energy can sustain profitability and revenue growth in a fluctuating energy market.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.10 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.05 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±26.49%
Historical Avg
±2.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±26.5% while LBRT has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
52.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.6% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$127,220.61
6,666 sh
1 insider
Net
$127,220.61
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
$127,220.61
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
113.31%
of float
Insider
1.99%
of float
Holders
522
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
27,552,623 sh · $534.8M
16.88%
7.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Liberty beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.11%, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.32%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 6, 2026 · @ $20.00
3,333 sh
$66,660.00
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $18.17
3,333 sh
$60,560.61
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
11,155,633 sh · $216.5M
6.84%
6.0%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
9,422,892 sh · $182.9M
5.77%
2.0%
State Street Corporation
7,074,089 sh · $137.3M
4.33%
2.9%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
7,071,270 sh · $137.3M
4.33%
1.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.