Equity Profile

LMND

Lemonade, Inc.

FinancialsProperty & Casualty Insurance$4.3B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market1:00 AM EDT

Lemonade, Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Down 0.13%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.47	$-0.57	+18.97%
Revenue	N/A	$252M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Lemonade, Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Down 0.13%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.47	$-0.57	+18.97%
Revenue	N/A	$252M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Cautiously Optimistic

Management expressed cautious optimism about future growth, emphasizing improvements in customer acquisition. However, they acknowledged ongoing operational challenges.

Management highlighted improvements in customer acquisition costs.

They noted ongoing challenges in scaling operations effectively.

The focus remains on enhancing product offerings and customer experience.

What It Means

Lemonade's better-than-expected EPS indicates that the company is managing costs effectively, which is a positive sign for investors. However, the stock reacted slightly down by 0.13%, likely due to the lack of revenue data and guidance. Investors may be concerned about the company's ability to scale operations and meet future growth targets.

Company Snapshot

Lemonade, Inc. is a technology-driven insurance company that offers homeowners and renters insurance through an easy-to-use app....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Lemonade is managing costs.

-0.57

Revenue

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its customer base and market share.

252M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Lemonade, Inc. is a technology-driven insurance company that offers homeowners and renters insurance through an easy-to-use app. As part of the financial sector, it aims to disrupt traditional insurance models by using artificial intelligence and behavioral economics to streamline processes and enhance customer experience.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+18.72%

Avg Stock Reaction

+4.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Lemonade reported an EPS of -0.29, beating expectations by nearly 29%. However, the stock fell by 6.18% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Lemonade to report a loss this quarter, but the company has a history of beating EPS estimates. Investors will be watching closely to see if this trend continues.

Bull Case

If Lemonade can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal that the company's innovative approach is gaining traction in the market.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about its long-term viability and ability to compete in the insurance industry.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-0.57

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Lemonade is managing costs.

Revenue

252M

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its customer base and market share.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Lemonade's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $252M?

Revenue growth is critical for demonstrating the company's ability to attract and retain customers in a competitive market.

Can Lemonade maintain its track record of beating EPS estimates?

A continued pattern of exceeding EPS expectations could bolster investor confidence and support the stock price.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Lemonade's ability to leverage technology for customer acquisition and retention, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Lemonade has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating operational efficiency.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations for performance.

Key Risk

If Lemonade's revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Lemonade can sustain its growth and profitability amid increasing competition in the insurance sector.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS better than -0.57 and revenue above $252M would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -0.57 and revenue below $246M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.74%

Historical Avg

±12.3%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.5% while LMND has averaged ±12.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

1.9%

30d HV

75.0%

Calls (642K)P/C Ratio: 0.70Puts (526K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Lemonade beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 6.19%, confirming the company's growth narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted response, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with past patterns indicating a potential drop of around 10.95%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on customer acquisition rates and retention metrics.
2Insights into how Lemonade is managing operational costs.
3Details on new product offerings or market expansions.
4Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the insurance market.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Lemonade, Inc. is a technology-driven insurance company that offers homeowners and renters insurance through an easy-to-use app....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Lemonade is managing costs.

-0.57

Revenue

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its customer base and market share.

252M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+18.72%

Avg Stock Reaction

+4.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Lemonade reported an EPS of -0.29, beating expectations by nearly 29%. However, the stock fell by 6.18% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Lemonade to report a loss this quarter, but the company has a history of beating EPS estimates. Investors will be watching closely to see if this trend continues.

Bull Case

If Lemonade can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal that the company's innovative approach is gaining traction in the market.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about its long-term viability and ability to compete in the insurance industry.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-0.57

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Lemonade is managing costs.

Revenue

252M

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its customer base and market share.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Lemonade's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $252M?

Revenue growth is critical for demonstrating the company's ability to attract and retain customers in a competitive market.

Can Lemonade maintain its track record of beating EPS estimates?

A continued pattern of exceeding EPS expectations could bolster investor confidence and support the stock price.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Lemonade's ability to leverage technology for customer acquisition and retention, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Lemonade has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating operational efficiency.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations for performance.

Key Risk

If Lemonade's revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Lemonade can sustain its growth and profitability amid increasing competition in the insurance sector.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS better than -0.57 and revenue above $252M would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -0.57 and revenue below $246M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.74%

Historical Avg

±12.3%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.5% while LMND has averaged ±12.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

1.9%

30d HV

75.0%

Calls (642K)P/C Ratio: 0.70Puts (526K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Lemonade beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 6.19%, confirming the company's growth narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted response, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with past patterns indicating a potential drop of around 10.95%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on customer acquisition rates and retention metrics.
2Insights into how Lemonade is managing operational costs.
3Details on new product offerings or market expansions.
4Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the insurance market.