Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$7.94
EPS est.
$7.22
EPS surprise
+9.96%
1-day move
+10.54%
Lockheed Martin's earnings report showed a strong performance on EPS, exceeding expectations by nearly 10%. This positive surprise likely contributed to the stock's significant increase of over 10% in response. However, without revenue figures or management commentary, investors may need to wait for further details to fully understand the company's performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $7.94 | N/A | +9.96% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is a leading aerospace and defense company that plays a crucial role in national security and technological innovation. With a market cap of $138 billion, it focuses on advanced systems and solutions, including military aircraft, missiles, and space systems, making it vital in a world with increasing defense needs.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Lockheed Martin reported an EPS of $6.44, which was below the expected $6.67, resulting in a stock decline of 4.62% the following day. This miss continues a trend of mixed earnings surprises in recent quarters.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-14.41%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.30%
Overall, expectations for Lockheed Martin's upcoming earnings are cautious, given the recent earnings misses and lack of guidance. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue growth.
Bull case
If Lockheed Martin can demonstrate strong demand for its defense products and exceed EPS expectations, it could signal a rebound in performance and investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and shows weak revenue growth, it may raise concerns about its market position and future profitability.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed $6.67, and what factors are driving this performance?
Given the recent trend of earnings misses, a positive EPS surprise could restore investor confidence and support the stock price.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in key segments?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge demand for Lockheed Martin's products and its competitive position in the defense sector.
—
Est. EPS
$0.34
Est. Rev
$86M
Impl. Move
±11.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Lockheed Martin's ability to recover from recent earnings misses, as defense spending is expected to increase amid geopolitical tensions.
Supporting evidence
The options market indicates a relatively low expected move of 4%, suggesting that investors may not be fully pricing in potential positive developments.
Lockheed Martin's historical performance shows that it has a 50% chance of beating EPS estimates, which could lead to a positive surprise this quarter.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS above $6.70, it could significantly shift market sentiment and challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter, the focus is on whether Lockheed Martin can turn around its recent earnings performance and show growth in revenue, which is critical for its long-term success.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $6.70 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $6.40 would reinforce concerns about ongoing challenges in the business.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.0%
Historical Avg
±6.2%
The options market is pricing in a move of about 4% in either direction, suggesting uncertainty about the upcoming earnings results.
Options are pricing ±4.0% while LMT has averaged ±6.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
25.7%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
76.67%
of float
Insider
0.11%
of float
Holders
3,283
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
State Street Corporation
32,975,170 sh · $16.5B
14.29%
1.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Lockheed Martin beats EPS expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.73% on the following day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience muted movement as investors digest the information.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of approximately 5.10% based on historical patterns, raising concerns about the company's future performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
0 buys·3 sells
Members
2
House + Senate
Est. Notional
$45,003.00–$150,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
18,877,978 sh · $9.4B
8.18%
5.9%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
14,158,758 sh · $7.1B
6.13%
0.7%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
7,806,000 sh · $3.9B
3.38%
9.1%
Morgan Stanley
5,706,408 sh · $2.8B
2.47%
0.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 2, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Sep 2, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jun 8, 2026 · disclosed Jul 16, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.