Equity Profile

LTM

LATAM Airlines Group S.A.

IndustrialsPassenger Airlines$15.3B

Aug11Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2025After Close9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is a major airline group in South America, providing passenger and cargo services across the continent and beyond....

Key Metrics to Watch

Passenger Revenue

This metric is crucial as it reflects the demand for air travel, which can be influenced by economic recovery and consumer spending.

N/A

Load Factor

The load factor indicates how efficiently the airline fills seats and generates revenue, an important measure of operational performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

LTM Q4-2025 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is a major airline group in South America, providing passenger and cargo services across the continent and beyond. As a key player in the passenger airline industry, its performance is closely tied to consumer travel demand and economic conditions in the region.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-13.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.20%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2025, LATAM Airlines reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.00, significantly missing analyst expectations of $1.26. Following this disappointing result, the stock fell by 1.64% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for LATAM Airlines are cautious, especially after a significant earnings miss last quarter. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in passenger demand and operational efficiency.

Bull Case

If LATAM can demonstrate a rebound in passenger revenue and improved load factors, it could signal a strong recovery in travel demand, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued weak demand or rising operational costs, it may reinforce concerns about its profitability and lead to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current load factor and how does it compare to pre-pandemic levels?

This will indicate how well LATAM is filling its flights and whether travel demand is recovering, which is crucial for revenue growth.

What are the trends in operating costs, especially fuel and labor?

Understanding cost pressures will help gauge profitability and operational efficiency in the current economic environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in travel demand as economies reopen, which could lead to better-than-expected revenue figures.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing indicates a 7.84% move, suggesting the market anticipates significant volatility, which could be driven by positive news.

LATAM's historical performance shows that it has often rebounded strongly after periods of weakness, indicating potential for a surprise.

The airline industry is seeing a broader recovery trend, which LATAM could benefit from if it can capitalize on increased travel demand.

Key Risk

If the load factor exceeds 80%, it could challenge the cautious outlook and lead to a positive reassessment of the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether LATAM can effectively manage costs while capitalizing on a recovery in travel demand.

Bull Confirmed If

A load factor above 80% would indicate strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

Operating costs rising above 10% year-over-year would signal potential profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.84%

The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

57.9%

Calls (49K)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If LATAM beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.64%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer signals of recovery.

Miss

Should LATAM miss again, the stock could drop by around 1.64%, reinforcing concerns about its operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on passenger revenue trends and how they compare to last year.
2Management's outlook on operating costs and any cost-saving measures being implemented.
3Insights into international travel demand and how LATAM is positioned to capture it.
4Comments on competitive pressures in the airline industry and how LATAM plans to respond.
5Any guidance on future capacity and routes as travel demand evolves.

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Company Snapshot

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is a major airline group in South America, providing passenger and cargo services across the continent and beyond....

Key Metrics to Watch

Passenger Revenue

This metric is crucial as it reflects the demand for air travel, which can be influenced by economic recovery and consumer spending.

N/A

Load Factor

The load factor indicates how efficiently the airline fills seats and generates revenue, an important measure of operational performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

LTM Q4-2025 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-13.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.20%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If LATAM can demonstrate a rebound in passenger revenue and improved load factors, it could signal a strong recovery in travel demand, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued weak demand or rising operational costs, it may reinforce concerns about its profitability and lead to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current load factor and how does it compare to pre-pandemic levels?

This will indicate how well LATAM is filling its flights and whether travel demand is recovering, which is crucial for revenue growth.

What are the trends in operating costs, especially fuel and labor?

Understanding cost pressures will help gauge profitability and operational efficiency in the current economic environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in travel demand as economies reopen, which could lead to better-than-expected revenue figures.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing indicates a 7.84% move, suggesting the market anticipates significant volatility, which could be driven by positive news.

LATAM's historical performance shows that it has often rebounded strongly after periods of weakness, indicating potential for a surprise.

The airline industry is seeing a broader recovery trend, which LATAM could benefit from if it can capitalize on increased travel demand.

Key Risk

If the load factor exceeds 80%, it could challenge the cautious outlook and lead to a positive reassessment of the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether LATAM can effectively manage costs while capitalizing on a recovery in travel demand.

Bull Confirmed If

A load factor above 80% would indicate strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

Operating costs rising above 10% year-over-year would signal potential profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.84%

The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

57.9%

Calls (49K)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If LATAM beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.64%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer signals of recovery.

Miss

Should LATAM miss again, the stock could drop by around 1.64%, reinforcing concerns about its operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on passenger revenue trends and how they compare to last year.
2Management's outlook on operating costs and any cost-saving measures being implemented.
3Insights into international travel demand and how LATAM is positioned to capture it.
4Comments on competitive pressures in the airline industry and how LATAM plans to respond.
5Any guidance on future capacity and routes as travel demand evolves.