Equity Profile

M

Macy's, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryBroadline Retail$6.1B

Jun3Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Macy's, Inc. is a major retail company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily selling clothing, accessories, and home goods....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Macy's has managed costs and sales.

$0.03

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand.

$4.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

M Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Macy's, Inc. is a major retail company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily selling clothing, accessories, and home goods. With a market cap of $6 billion, Macy's plays a significant role in the retail landscape, especially as consumer spending trends evolve in a post-pandemic world.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+40.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.84%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Macy's reported an EPS of $1.67, exceeding expectations and reflecting strong performance. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall sales.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to improving inventory management.
They emphasized plans to enhance the online shopping experience.
Macy's aims to focus on customer loyalty programs.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Macy's to report modest earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.03. Given the company's recent history of beating estimates, there is cautious optimism.

Bull Case

If Macy's can leverage its recent successes and improve sales, it could exceed expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if consumer spending weakens or inventory issues persist, Macy's may struggle to meet even the low expectations set by analysts.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.03

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Macy's has managed costs and sales.

Revenue

$4.6B

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Macy's achieve an EPS of $0.03 or better?

This figure is crucial as it will indicate whether the company can maintain profitability amid changing consumer behaviors.

What are the revenue figures and how do they compare to last year?

Understanding revenue trends will provide insight into consumer demand and the effectiveness of Macy's sales strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Macy's ability to capitalize on improved consumer spending trends, especially in the clothing sector.

Supporting Evidence

Macy's has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger underlying performance.

Recent consumer spending data indicates a rebound in discretionary spending, which could benefit Macy's.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Macy's can sustain its recent profitability and adapt to evolving consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.03 or higher, coupled with strong revenue growth compared to last year, would confirm a positive outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.03 and declining revenue would signal ongoing challenges for Macy's.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.81%

Historical Avg

±5.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.8% while M has averaged ±5.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.0%

30d HV

40.5%

Calls (606K)P/C Ratio: 1.06Puts (246K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Macy's beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around +2.22%, confirming a positive trajectory.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line, the stock may see muted movement as investors assess management's commentary on future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting a potential drop of about -0.84%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on revenue performance compared to last year.
2Insights into consumer spending trends and how they are affecting sales.
3Updates on inventory management and supply chain improvements.
4Any new initiatives in customer loyalty programs.
5Management's outlook on the retail environment for the remainder of the year.

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Company Snapshot

Macy's, Inc. is a major retail company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily selling clothing, accessories, and home goods....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Macy's has managed costs and sales.

$0.03

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand.

$4.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

M Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+40.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.84%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to improving inventory management.
They emphasized plans to enhance the online shopping experience.
Macy's aims to focus on customer loyalty programs.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Macy's to report modest earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.03. Given the company's recent history of beating estimates, there is cautious optimism.

Bull Case

If Macy's can leverage its recent successes and improve sales, it could exceed expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if consumer spending weakens or inventory issues persist, Macy's may struggle to meet even the low expectations set by analysts.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.03

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Macy's has managed costs and sales.

Revenue

$4.6B

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Macy's achieve an EPS of $0.03 or better?

This figure is crucial as it will indicate whether the company can maintain profitability amid changing consumer behaviors.

What are the revenue figures and how do they compare to last year?

Understanding revenue trends will provide insight into consumer demand and the effectiveness of Macy's sales strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Macy's ability to capitalize on improved consumer spending trends, especially in the clothing sector.

Supporting Evidence

Macy's has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger underlying performance.

Recent consumer spending data indicates a rebound in discretionary spending, which could benefit Macy's.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Macy's can sustain its recent profitability and adapt to evolving consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.03 or higher, coupled with strong revenue growth compared to last year, would confirm a positive outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.03 and declining revenue would signal ongoing challenges for Macy's.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.81%

Historical Avg

±5.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.8% while M has averaged ±5.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.0%

30d HV

40.5%

Calls (606K)P/C Ratio: 1.06Puts (246K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Macy's beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around +2.22%, confirming a positive trajectory.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line, the stock may see muted movement as investors assess management's commentary on future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting a potential drop of about -0.84%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on revenue performance compared to last year.
2Insights into consumer spending trends and how they are affecting sales.
3Updates on inventory management and supply chain improvements.
4Any new initiatives in customer loyalty programs.
5Management's outlook on the retail environment for the remainder of the year.