Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.20
EPS est.
$-0.24
EPS surprise
+16.67%
1-day move
+0.68%
Mattel's earnings report showed a better-than-expected performance on EPS, which likely contributed to the stock's modest increase of 0.68%. However, the lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the company's overall performance. Investors may be cautiously optimistic but will need more information to assess future growth prospects.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.20 | $-0.21 | +16.67% |
| Revenue | N/A | $809M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels. Operating in the consumer discretionary sector, Mattel's performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and the overall health of the leisure products market.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Mattel reported an EPS of $0.39, which was below expectations, leading to a slight decline in stock price. The company continues to face challenges in meeting analyst forecasts.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+7.36%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.13%
Analysts anticipate a challenging quarter for Mattel, with expectations of a loss in EPS and modest revenue. The market is closely watching how the company navigates its product offerings and consumer demand.
Bull case
If Mattel can outperform expectations on revenue and show signs of strong brand performance, it could lead to a positive reassessment of its growth potential.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or reports a larger loss than anticipated, it could further dampen investor sentiment and lead to a significant stock decline.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.21Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.
Revenue
$809MRevenue figures will reflect the demand for Mattel's products and overall sales performance in a competitive market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Mattel's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $809 million?
Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand for Mattel's products and overall market health.
Q2
How will management address the recent trend of missing EPS estimates?
Understanding management's strategy for improving profitability is key to investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for a rebound in sales driven by new product launches and marketing initiatives.
Supporting evidence
Despite recent misses, Mattel has a strong brand portfolio that could drive unexpected revenue growth.
The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that traders expect a surprise in either direction.
Key risk
If new product lines perform better than expected, it could significantly alter revenue forecasts.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as the company attempts to regain investor confidence after recent earnings misses.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth exceeding $809 million would signal strong demand and operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than the consensus of $-0.21 would indicate deeper issues in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.2%
Historical Avg
±1.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±12.2% while MAT has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
21.9%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
108.68%
of float
Insider
1.02%
of float
Holders
526
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Edgepoint Investment Group Inc.
51,047,454 sh · $835.6M
17.87%
3.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Mattel beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, confirming a potential turnaround in performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see limited movement as the market digests the information.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.11%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Primecap Management Company
29,505,735 sh · $483.0M
10.33%
-0.6%
Blackrock Inc.
26,172,377 sh · $428.4M
9.16%
-4.2%
Ariel Investments, LLC
15,415,955 sh · $252.4M
5.40%
13.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
13,168,755 sh · $215.6M
4.61%
-3.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.