Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Aug 4, 2026
EPS actual
$0.01
EPS est.
$0.03
EPS surprise
-66.67%
1-day move
-0.13%
Mattel's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about the company's profitability. The stock reacted slightly down by 0.13%, indicating a muted response to the results. With no revenue figures reported and no guidance provided, uncertainty remains about the company's future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.01 | $0.04 | -66.67% |
| Revenue | — | $1.1B | — |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for its iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and the overall health of the retail market.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Mattel reported an EPS of -$0.20, which was better than the expected -$0.24, indicating a positive surprise. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall sales performance.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+7.36%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.13%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Mattel's upcoming earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.04 and revenue expectations of $1.1 billion. The market is looking for signs of recovery in consumer spending and product demand.
Bull case
If Mattel can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a rebound in consumer interest and spending, potentially boosting the stock price significantly.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports a loss or lower-than-expected revenue, it may raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the toy industry and consumer spending, leading to a negative reaction in the stock.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.04EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Mattel is managing costs and sales.
Revenue
$1.1BRevenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for Mattel's products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Mattel achieve an EPS of $0.04 or better?
This number is critical as it reflects the company's ability to manage costs and generate profit amidst market challenges.
Q2
What are the revenue figures for this quarter?
Understanding revenue will provide insights into consumer demand and the effectiveness of Mattel's product offerings.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±12.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a strong rebound in toy sales, especially with new product launches and marketing efforts.
Supporting evidence
Historical data shows a 75% EPS beat rate, suggesting a strong likelihood of positive surprises.
Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, hinting at potential volatility.
Recent consumer trends indicate a resurgence in discretionary spending, which could benefit Mattel.
Key risk
If revenue comes in significantly above $1.1 billion, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Mattel can maintain profitability in a challenging retail environment, making these metrics crucial.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.09 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.01 would indicate ongoing struggles in profitability and could lead to negative sentiment.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±15.15%
Historical Avg
±1.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±15.1% while MAT has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
22.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
108.68%
of float
Insider
1.02%
of float
Holders
526
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Edgepoint Investment Group Inc.
51,047,454 sh · $835.6M
17.87%
3.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Mattel beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.25%.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as the market digests the details.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average drop of around 0.11% in such cases.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Primecap Management Company
29,505,735 sh · $483.0M
10.33%
-0.6%
Blackrock Inc.
26,172,377 sh · $428.4M
9.16%
-4.2%
Ariel Investments, LLC
15,415,955 sh · $252.4M
5.40%
13.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
13,168,755 sh · $215.6M
4.61%
-3.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.