Equity Profile

MAT

Mattel, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryLeisure Products$4.3B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. is a leading toy manufacturer known for iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Mattel is managing costs and generating income.

$0.04

Revenue

Revenue figures will show how well Mattel's products are selling in the market, reflecting consumer demand.

$1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MAT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. is a leading toy manufacturer known for iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels. Operating in the Consumer Discretionary sector, the company is influenced by trends in consumer spending and the leisure products industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.77%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.82%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Mattel reported an EPS of -$0.20, which was better than analysts' expectations of -$0.24, indicating a positive surprise. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.68% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Mattel to report a modest profit this quarter, with EPS projected at $0.04 and revenue at $1.1 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of improvement in sales.

Bull Case

If Mattel can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in consumer demand for toys, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or reports weak sales, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the toy industry and consumer spending.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.04

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Mattel is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.1B

Revenue figures will show how well Mattel's products are selling in the market, reflecting consumer demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Mattel's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.04?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What are the sales figures for key brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels?

Sales performance of these flagship products will be crucial in assessing overall demand and market trends.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a rebound in sales driven by new product launches and marketing efforts.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 15.15% move, suggesting greater uncertainty than the historical average of 2.4%.

Mattel's recent positive EPS surprises indicate potential for continued improvement.

Strong brand loyalty for products like Barbie may lead to better-than-expected sales.

Key Risk

If sales for key brands exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Mattel can sustain profitability amidst fluctuating consumer demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.09 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.01 would signal ongoing challenges in the toy market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.15%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while MAT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

22.7%

Calls (37K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (4K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mattel beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.4%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.11%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on sales performance for Barbie and Hot Wheels.
2Any updates on new product launches or marketing strategies.
3Management's outlook on consumer spending trends.
4Insights into cost management and operational efficiency.
5Comments on competitive pressures in the toy industry.

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Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. is a leading toy manufacturer known for iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Mattel is managing costs and generating income.

$0.04

Revenue

Revenue figures will show how well Mattel's products are selling in the market, reflecting consumer demand.

$1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MAT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.77%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.82%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Mattel reported an EPS of -$0.20, which was better than analysts' expectations of -$0.24, indicating a positive surprise. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.68% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Mattel to report a modest profit this quarter, with EPS projected at $0.04 and revenue at $1.1 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of improvement in sales.

Bull Case

If Mattel can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in consumer demand for toys, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or reports weak sales, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the toy industry and consumer spending.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.04

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Mattel is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.1B

Revenue figures will show how well Mattel's products are selling in the market, reflecting consumer demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Mattel's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.04?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What are the sales figures for key brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels?

Sales performance of these flagship products will be crucial in assessing overall demand and market trends.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a rebound in sales driven by new product launches and marketing efforts.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 15.15% move, suggesting greater uncertainty than the historical average of 2.4%.

Mattel's recent positive EPS surprises indicate potential for continued improvement.

Strong brand loyalty for products like Barbie may lead to better-than-expected sales.

Key Risk

If sales for key brands exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Mattel can sustain profitability amidst fluctuating consumer demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.09 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.01 would signal ongoing challenges in the toy market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.15%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while MAT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

22.7%

Calls (37K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (4K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mattel beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.4%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.11%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on sales performance for Barbie and Hot Wheels.
2Any updates on new product launches or marketing strategies.
3Management's outlook on consumer spending trends.
4Insights into cost management and operational efficiency.
5Comments on competitive pressures in the toy industry.