Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, May 4, 2026
EPS actual
$1.85
EPS est.
$1.65
EPS surprise
+12.12%
1-day move
-1.57%
Matson, Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings per share, indicating stronger profitability than analysts anticipated. However, the stock fell by 1.57%, suggesting that investors may have been disappointed by the lack of revenue information or future guidance. The absence of management commentary may have contributed to the stock's decline as investors seek clarity on the company's direction.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.85 | $1.58 | +12.12% |
| Revenue | N/A | $784M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Matson, Inc. is a key player in the marine transportation sector, focusing on shipping and logistics services across the Pacific. With a market cap of $5 billion, the company plays a vital role in global trade, particularly in connecting the U.S. mainland with Hawaii and other Pacific islands.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Matson reported an EPS of $4.60, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The stock experienced a modest increase of 1.59% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+8.57%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.49%
Analysts are generally optimistic about Matson's upcoming earnings, with expectations for solid EPS and revenue figures. However, the market is also cautious given the recent volatility in the sector.
Bull case
If Matson beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand and operational strength, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about demand and profitability, resulting in a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$1.58EPS is a critical measure of profitability and indicates how much money the company makes for each share of stock.
Revenue
$784MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.58?
A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in Matson's profitability and operational efficiency, potentially driving the stock higher.
Q2
What guidance will management provide for revenue growth?
Clear guidance on revenue growth will help investors gauge future performance and demand trends, impacting stock sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Matson's ability to leverage operational efficiencies and demand in the Pacific shipping market.
Supporting evidence
The company has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 83% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
Options are pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting potential for a surprise.
Recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in analyst expectations.
Key risk
If Matson's revenue growth exceeds $800M, it could significantly shift market sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating Matson's ability to maintain profitability amidst fluctuating demand and operational challenges.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.60 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.55 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.46%
Historical Avg
±1.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.5% while MATX has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
26.9%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$2.2M
10,000 sh
1 insider
Net
$2.2M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 4 open-market trades
$2.2M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
89.73%
of float
Insider
1.88%
of float
Holders
559
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
4,957,097 sh · $1.1B
16.58%
-1.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Matson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.7%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 2.7%, indicating market concerns over profitability.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $222.73
6,048 sh
$1.3M
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $221.52
2,495 sh
$552,692.40
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $223.72
752 sh
$168,237.44
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $220.32
705 sh
$155,325.60
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
1,995,042 sh · $444.7M
6.67%
-1.5%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
1,943,301 sh · $433.2M
6.50%
-0.2%
American Century Companies Inc
1,760,017 sh · $392.3M
5.89%
17.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,294,106 sh · $288.5M
4.33%
-2.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.