Equity Profile

MATX

Matson, Inc.

IndustrialsMarine Transportation$6.4B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Matson, Inc. (MATX) is a leading provider of marine transportation services, primarily in the Pacific region....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Matson is managing costs and revenue.

$3.82

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and demand for its shipping services.

$894M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MATX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Matson, Inc. (MATX) is a leading provider of marine transportation services, primarily in the Pacific region. The company plays a crucial role in the supply chain, moving goods between the mainland U.S. and Hawaii, Alaska, and other Pacific islands, making it important for both consumer spending and international trade.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+9.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.18%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Matson reported an EPS of $1.85, exceeding expectations by 12.12%. However, the stock fell 1.57% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Matson to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $3.82. Investors are closely watching how the company navigates ongoing supply chain challenges and demand fluctuations.

Bull Case

If Matson can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand for its services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings or revenue due to rising costs or decreased shipping volumes, it may lead to a significant drop in the stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$3.82

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Matson is managing costs and revenue.

Revenue

$894M

Total revenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and demand for its shipping services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Matson's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $3.82?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's ability to manage costs effectively and could lead to a positive stock reaction.

What is the revenue outlook for the upcoming quarters?

Understanding revenue trends will provide insights into demand for Matson's services and its ability to navigate the current economic environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Matson's ability to leverage its strong market position and operational efficiencies to exceed earnings expectations this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Matson has consistently beaten EPS estimates in previous quarters, with an 83% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market indicates a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Key Risk

If Matson's revenue exceeds $900M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a positive reassessment of the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will reflect Matson's ability to adapt to market conditions and manage costs effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting significant challenges in revenue generation.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.98%

Historical Avg

±1.64%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move following the earnings report, suggesting heightened investor uncertainty.

Options price a 17.98% move, while the stock has averaged only 1.64% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.2%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 1.40Puts (700)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 19 of 24 (79%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.6% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Matson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.64%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.71%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on shipping demand trends, particularly in the Pacific region.
2Insights into cost management strategies and how they are impacting margins.
3Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could drive future growth.
4Management's outlook on the global supply chain and its potential impact on operations.
5Comments on competitive pressures and how Matson plans to address them.

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Company Snapshot

Matson, Inc. (MATX) is a leading provider of marine transportation services, primarily in the Pacific region....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Matson is managing costs and revenue.

$3.82

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and demand for its shipping services.

$894M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MATX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+9.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.18%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Matson reported an EPS of $1.85, exceeding expectations by 12.12%. However, the stock fell 1.57% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Matson can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand for its services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings or revenue due to rising costs or decreased shipping volumes, it may lead to a significant drop in the stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$3.82

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Matson is managing costs and revenue.

Revenue

$894M

Total revenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and demand for its shipping services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Matson's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $3.82?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's ability to manage costs effectively and could lead to a positive stock reaction.

What is the revenue outlook for the upcoming quarters?

Understanding revenue trends will provide insights into demand for Matson's services and its ability to navigate the current economic environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Matson's ability to leverage its strong market position and operational efficiencies to exceed earnings expectations this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Matson has consistently beaten EPS estimates in previous quarters, with an 83% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market indicates a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Key Risk

If Matson's revenue exceeds $900M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a positive reassessment of the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will reflect Matson's ability to adapt to market conditions and manage costs effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting significant challenges in revenue generation.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.98%

Historical Avg

±1.64%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move following the earnings report, suggesting heightened investor uncertainty.

Options price a 17.98% move, while the stock has averaged only 1.64% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.2%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 1.40Puts (700)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Matson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.64%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.71%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on shipping demand trends, particularly in the Pacific region.
2Insights into cost management strategies and how they are impacting margins.
3Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could drive future growth.
4Management's outlook on the global supply chain and its potential impact on operations.
5Comments on competitive pressures and how Matson plans to address them.