Equity Profile

MC

Moelis & Company

FinancialsInvestment Banking & Brokerage$5.0B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain clients, which is crucial for its long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Moelis & Company (MC) is an investment banking firm that provides financial advisory services to clients worldwide. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and capital markets. As economic conditions fluctuate, the firm's performance can be closely tied to overall market activity and corporate spending.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+48.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Moelis reported an EPS of $0.48, which was below the expected $0.59, resulting in an 18.78% surprise. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Moelis & Company are mixed, with some analysts cautious after the last quarter's earnings miss. Investors are keen to see if the company can rebound and provide stronger guidance.

Bull Case

If Moelis can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it may regain investor confidence and see a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the previous quarter's $0.48?

A higher EPS would indicate a recovery in profitability and could positively influence investor sentiment.

What are the trends in advisory fees and revenue growth?

Understanding these trends will provide insight into the company's market position and future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Moelis's ability to rebound from its last earnings miss, as historical patterns show a strong EPS beat rate of 88%.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 12.47% move, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 2.83%.

Moelis has a history of surprising to the upside, with a strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

The recent drop in stock price may have created a buying opportunity, as the company is well-positioned to capitalize on market recovery.

Key Risk

If advisory fees show unexpected growth, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a disappointing earnings report, and investors are looking for signs of improvement.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.60 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.48 would reinforce bearish sentiment and signal ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.47%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while MC has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

29.2%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 1.25Puts (700)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moelis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +0.86%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of -3.79% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on advisory fees and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and potential impacts on future earnings.
3Details on any significant deals or transactions that could influence revenue.
4Insights into client demand and market trends in investment banking.
5Any commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain clients, which is crucial for its long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+48.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Moelis reported an EPS of $0.48, which was below the expected $0.59, resulting in an 18.78% surprise. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Moelis can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it may regain investor confidence and see a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the previous quarter's $0.48?

A higher EPS would indicate a recovery in profitability and could positively influence investor sentiment.

What are the trends in advisory fees and revenue growth?

Understanding these trends will provide insight into the company's market position and future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Moelis's ability to rebound from its last earnings miss, as historical patterns show a strong EPS beat rate of 88%.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 12.47% move, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 2.83%.

Moelis has a history of surprising to the upside, with a strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

The recent drop in stock price may have created a buying opportunity, as the company is well-positioned to capitalize on market recovery.

Key Risk

If advisory fees show unexpected growth, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a disappointing earnings report, and investors are looking for signs of improvement.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.60 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.48 would reinforce bearish sentiment and signal ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.47%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while MC has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

29.2%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 1.25Puts (700)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moelis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +0.86%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of -3.79% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on advisory fees and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and potential impacts on future earnings.
3Details on any significant deals or transactions that could influence revenue.
4Insights into client demand and market trends in investment banking.
5Any commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.