Equity Profile

MC

Moelis & Company

FinancialsInvestment Banking & Brokerage$5.1B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Moelis & Company (MC) is a financial services firm that specializes in investment banking and brokerage. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a significant role in advising clients on mergers, acquisitions, and capital raising, making it a key player in the financial sector.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for understanding the company's ability to expand its business and attract new clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+48.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Moelis reported an EPS of $0.48, missing estimates by nearly 19%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Moelis faces challenges following a disappointing previous quarter. Investors are keen to see if the company can rebound.

Bull Case

If Moelis can demonstrate strong deal flow and improved EPS, it could regain investor confidence and see a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to struggle with profitability and deal volume, it may face further declines in stock value.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and a significant improvement or decline will heavily influence market sentiment.

How does Moelis plan to increase deal volume in the current market environment?

Increased deal volume is crucial for revenue growth, and any clear strategy will be closely scrutinized by investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Moelis's ability to recover from its last quarter's miss, as historical patterns show strong rebounds after similar situations.

Supporting Evidence

Moelis has an 88% EPS beat rate historically, indicating a tendency to outperform expectations.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect a more volatile reaction than historical averages.

The recent drop in stock price may have created a buying opportunity for investors looking for a rebound.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.60, it could significantly shift market sentiment and challenge the current bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on whether Moelis can turn around its performance after a disappointing previous quarter.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.60 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and positive momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would indicate ongoing struggles and likely lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.47%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while MC has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

29.2%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 1.25Puts (700)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moelis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, potentially around a 2.7% increase.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may remain flat or see minor fluctuations.

Miss

A miss would likely lead to a decline, with historical data indicating an average drop of about 3.79%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on deal flow and major transactions in the pipeline.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and competitive landscape.
3Specific EPS guidance for the next quarter.
4Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
5Comments on client demand and sector trends.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for understanding the company's ability to expand its business and attract new clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+48.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Moelis reported an EPS of $0.48, missing estimates by nearly 19%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Moelis faces challenges following a disappointing previous quarter. Investors are keen to see if the company can rebound.

Bull Case

If Moelis can demonstrate strong deal flow and improved EPS, it could regain investor confidence and see a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to struggle with profitability and deal volume, it may face further declines in stock value.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and a significant improvement or decline will heavily influence market sentiment.

How does Moelis plan to increase deal volume in the current market environment?

Increased deal volume is crucial for revenue growth, and any clear strategy will be closely scrutinized by investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Moelis's ability to recover from its last quarter's miss, as historical patterns show strong rebounds after similar situations.

Supporting Evidence

Moelis has an 88% EPS beat rate historically, indicating a tendency to outperform expectations.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect a more volatile reaction than historical averages.

The recent drop in stock price may have created a buying opportunity for investors looking for a rebound.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.60, it could significantly shift market sentiment and challenge the current bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on whether Moelis can turn around its performance after a disappointing previous quarter.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.60 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and positive momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would indicate ongoing struggles and likely lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.47%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while MC has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

29.2%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 1.25Puts (700)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moelis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, potentially around a 2.7% increase.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may remain flat or see minor fluctuations.

Miss

A miss would likely lead to a decline, with historical data indicating an average drop of about 3.79%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on deal flow and major transactions in the pipeline.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and competitive landscape.
3Specific EPS guidance for the next quarter.
4Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
5Comments on client demand and sector trends.