Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
EPS actual
$4.68
EPS est.
$4.24
EPS surprise
+10.35%
1-day move
-0.22%
Moody's reported a strong earnings per share figure that exceeded analyst expectations, indicating better profitability. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining slightly by 0.22%. The lack of revenue details and management commentary may have contributed to investor uncertainty.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $4.68 | $4.24 | +10.35% |
| Revenue | — | $2.1B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Moody's Corporation (MCO) is a leading provider of credit ratings, research, and risk analysis. Operating in the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in helping investors assess the creditworthiness of various entities, which is essential for informed decision-making in the markets.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Moody's reported an EPS of $4.33, slightly above the estimate of $4.25, resulting in a positive stock reaction of 1.55% the following day. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+4.00%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.44%
Analysts are generally optimistic about Moody's upcoming earnings, expecting solid EPS and revenue figures. The company's historical performance suggests it often exceeds expectations.
Bull case
If Moody's beats EPS estimates again, it could indicate strong demand for its services and boost investor confidence, potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about its growth prospects, leading to a decline in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$4.24EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$2.1BRevenue growth reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing overall performance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Moody's report an EPS above $4.24?
This figure is crucial as it sets the tone for investor confidence and expectations for future growth.
Q2
What insights can be shared about revenue growth?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the overall health of the business and its market position.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the potential for Moody's to exceed EPS expectations due to strong demand for credit ratings and risk analysis services.
Supporting evidence
Moody's has a history of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting potential upside.
Recent trends in the financial sector indicate increased demand for risk assessment services.
Key risk
If Moody's reports an EPS significantly below $4.00, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching how Moody's performs against its earnings estimates, especially given its strong history of beating expectations.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $4.30 or higher would confirm strong demand for Moody's services.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $4.00 would raise concerns about the company's growth trajectory.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±2.0%
Historical Avg
±3.1%
The options market is pricing a modest move in either direction following the earnings report, suggesting uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing ±2.0% while MCO has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
23.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Financials
Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$419,965.00
923 sh
1 insider
Net
$419,965.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
$419,965.00
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
78.89%
of float
Insider
14.38%
of float
Holders
1,982
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Berkshire Hathaway, Inc
24,669,778 sh · $11.1B
14.24%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Moody's beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 2.08%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss estimates, history indicates a potential decline of around 2.50%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $455.00
623 sh
$283,465.00
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $455.00
300 sh
$136,500.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
TCI Fund Management Ltd
14,334,027 sh · $6.4B
8.28%
Flat
Blackrock Inc.
12,461,878 sh · $5.6B
7.20%
-5.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
9,757,973 sh · $4.4B
5.63%
-1.3%
State Street Corporation
7,111,386 sh · $3.2B
4.11%
-0.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.