Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$-3.25
EPS est.
$-3.61
EPS surprise
+9.97%
1-day move
+7.42%
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals reported a smaller-than-expected loss per share, which contributed to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising by 7.42%. However, the company did not provide revenue figures or guidance, leaving some uncertainty about future performance. Investors may view the EPS beat as a sign of better-than-expected operational efficiency.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-3.25 | $-4.14 | +9.97% |
| Revenue | — | $302M | — |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on the numerical results.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for liver and metabolic diseases. With a market cap of $12 billion, its work is crucial in addressing unmet medical needs in the healthcare sector.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Madrigal reported an EPS of -$2.57, significantly missing analyst expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 11.11% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
-930.87%
Avg 1-day reaction
+4.52%
Analysts are anticipating another challenging quarter with a consensus EPS of -$4.14, reflecting ongoing investment in R&D. Revenue expectations are set at $302 million, indicating some growth potential.
Bull case
If Madrigal can exceed revenue expectations and show progress in clinical trials, it may signal strong future growth, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
A continued pattern of EPS misses could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in the company's ability to deliver on its promises.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
-$4.14Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$302MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $302 million?
Surpassing revenue expectations could indicate strong demand for Madrigal's products and improve investor sentiment.
Q2
What progress has been made in clinical trials for their lead product?
Updates on clinical trials are critical for assessing the company's future growth potential and market positioning.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Madrigal's potential for revenue growth due to recent advancements in their clinical trials, which could lead to higher-than-expected sales.
Supporting evidence
The company has a history of surprising on revenue, as seen in previous quarters.
Recent clinical trial data suggests stronger efficacy than previously anticipated, which could drive sales.
The options market indicates a significant expected move, suggesting that investors are bracing for potential positive news.
Key risk
If the revenue comes in above $320 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it could either restore confidence in Madrigal's growth strategy or further erode investor trust.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue exceeding $302 million and positive updates on clinical trials would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS of worse than -$4.14 alongside disappointing revenue would reinforce the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.60%
Historical Avg
±10.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±11.1% while MDGL has averaged ±10.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
44.3%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
104.65%
of float
Insider
5.83%
of float
Holders
562
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Baker Bros. Advisors, LP
2,143,131 sh · $1.0B
9.28%
0.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Madrigal beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +5.93%, confirming positive growth momentum.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a likely decline of about -3.59%, which could lead to increased skepticism about future performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
RTW Investments LP
1,993,687 sh · $972.4M
8.63%
Flat
Jupiter Topco LLC
1,936,099 sh · $944.3M
8.38%
100.0%
Avoro Capital Advisors LLC
1,833,333 sh · $894.2M
7.94%
0.8%
PAULSON & CO. INC.
1,340,020 sh · $653.6M
5.80%
-3.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.