Equity Profile

MDT

Medtronic plc

Health CareHealth Care Equipment$115.9B

Jun3Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Medtronic plc (MDT) is a global leader in medical technology, providing innovative healthcare solutions across various segments. With a market cap of $116 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the health care equipment sector, focusing on improving patient outcomes through advanced medical devices and therapies.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$1.55

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

$9.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MDT Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.42%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.31%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Medtronic reported an EPS of $1.36, beating estimates slightly. However, the stock declined by 3.10% the following day, reflecting market caution.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Medtronic to deliver a solid quarter with an EPS of $1.55 and revenue of $9.6 billion. However, recent stock performance has been mixed, leading to cautious sentiment.

Bull Case

If Medtronic can exceed EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in demand for its products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing challenges in the healthcare market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.55

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$9.6B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Medtronic's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.55?

A beat on EPS could signal stronger-than-expected demand and operational efficiency, which would be well-received by the market.

What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?

Investors will be looking for insights into the company's outlook, especially in light of recent mixed performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Medtronic to exceed EPS expectations due to recent operational improvements not fully reflected in analyst models.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent history shows an 88% EPS beat rate, indicating a strong track record of outperforming estimates.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating that investors anticipate significant news.

Recent insider selling could suggest a cautious approach, but it may not reflect the broader operational outlook.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $9.7 billion, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to upward revisions in estimates.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a pattern of mixed results, and investors are keen to see if Medtronic can regain momentum.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.60 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.52 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.32%

Historical Avg

±3.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.3% while MDT has averaged ±3.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

25.1%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (351K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Medtronic beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 2.19% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3.14%, reflecting investor disappointment and potential concerns about future growth.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKKevin HernRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and competitive landscape.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effect on margins.
4Details on geographic performance, especially in emerging markets.
5Any changes to guidance based on recent operational performance.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$1.55

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

$9.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MDT Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.42%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.31%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Medtronic reported an EPS of $1.36, beating estimates slightly. However, the stock declined by 3.10% the following day, reflecting market caution.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Medtronic to deliver a solid quarter with an EPS of $1.55 and revenue of $9.6 billion. However, recent stock performance has been mixed, leading to cautious sentiment.

Bull Case

If Medtronic can exceed EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in demand for its products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing challenges in the healthcare market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.55

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$9.6B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Medtronic's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.55?

A beat on EPS could signal stronger-than-expected demand and operational efficiency, which would be well-received by the market.

What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?

Investors will be looking for insights into the company's outlook, especially in light of recent mixed performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Medtronic to exceed EPS expectations due to recent operational improvements not fully reflected in analyst models.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent history shows an 88% EPS beat rate, indicating a strong track record of outperforming estimates.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating that investors anticipate significant news.

Recent insider selling could suggest a cautious approach, but it may not reflect the broader operational outlook.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $9.7 billion, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to upward revisions in estimates.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a pattern of mixed results, and investors are keen to see if Medtronic can regain momentum.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.60 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.52 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.32%

Historical Avg

±3.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.3% while MDT has averaged ±3.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

25.1%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (351K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Medtronic beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 2.19% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3.14%, reflecting investor disappointment and potential concerns about future growth.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKKevin HernRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and competitive landscape.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effect on margins.
4Details on geographic performance, especially in emerging markets.
5Any changes to guidance based on recent operational performance.