Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 28, 2026
EPS actual
$3.87
EPS est.
$4.00
EPS surprise
-3.18%
1-day move
-1.81%
Methanex Corporation reported an EPS of $3.87, which was slightly below expectations, leading to a stock decline of 1.81%. The lack of revenue data and guidance may have contributed to investor uncertainty. Overall, the results indicate challenges in meeting market expectations.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $3.87 | N/A | -3.18% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
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Impl. Move
±3.5%
Methanex Corporation (MEOH) is a leading producer of methanol, a key ingredient in various chemical products. Operating in the materials sector, Methanex plays a crucial role in the commodity chemicals industry, which is influenced by global demand for energy and chemicals.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Methanex reported an EPS of $0.30, missing estimates by 36%. Despite the disappointing results, the stock rose by 4.82% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+14.16%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.56%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about Methanex's upcoming earnings, particularly given the volatility in methanol prices and the company's recent performance.
Bull case
If Methanex can show a rebound in EPS and strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand for methanol, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or weak guidance, it may raise concerns about ongoing demand issues and profitability.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.47EPS is a critical indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, and it will be closely watched this quarter.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and market share, which is vital for investor confidence.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?
Given the recent earnings misses, the market will closely scrutinize whether Methanex can return to profitability.
Q2
How have methanol prices impacted revenue this quarter?
Understanding the effect of methanol prices on revenue will be crucial for assessing the company's performance and future outlook.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in methanol prices, which could significantly impact Methanex's earnings this quarter.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 22.08% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.
The company's previous earnings surprises suggest that it has the potential to exceed expectations despite recent misses.
Key risk
If methanol prices rebound significantly, it could lead to a much stronger EPS than the market anticipates.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is under scrutiny due to previous earnings misses and fluctuating methanol prices.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.47 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a recovery in demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.30 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about ongoing profitability issues.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±22.08%
Historical Avg
±2.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±22.1% while MEOH has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
44.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials
Fade rate: 11 of 29 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 18 of 29 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.47%
of float
Insider
7.39%
of float
Holders
331
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
M&G Plc
12,345,576 sh · $745.8M
15.96%
-0.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Methanex beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 1.66% on the first day, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors digest the outlook.
Miss
If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a potential drop of around 3.43%, raising further concerns about demand.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Methanol Prices
As a commodity producer, fluctuations in methanol prices directly impact Methanex's revenue and profitability.
Boston Partners
4,168,956 sh · $251.8M
5.39%
52.8%
Wellington Management Group, LLP
3,968,620 sh · $239.7M
5.13%
-11.9%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,110,285 sh · $127.5M
2.73%
8.8%
Dixon Mitchell Investment Counsel Inc.
1,917,382 sh · $115.8M
2.48%
-1.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.