Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jun 11, 2026
EPS actual
$0.32
EPS est.
$0.15
EPS surprise
+113.33%
1-day move
-3.44%
McGraw Hill, Inc. is a leading provider of educational content and services, primarily focusing on textbooks and digital learning solutions. As part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, the company plays a crucial role in the education services industry, which is increasingly influenced by trends in digital learning and consumer spending on educational materials.
Last quarter
In Q3-2026, McGraw Hill reported an impressive EPS of $0.28, significantly exceeding expectations. However, the stock fell by 5.08% the following day, indicating potential market skepticism despite the strong earnings.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
80%
Avg EPS surprise
+186.20%
Avg 1-day reaction
+5.32%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about McGraw Hill's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest EPS of $0.17 and revenue of $440M. The company has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past, which could influence investor sentiment.
Bull case
If McGraw Hill continues its trend of beating earnings estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and increased demand for its educational products, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet even the lowered expectations, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.17Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.
Revenue
$440MTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for its educational products and services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.17?
A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance trend and could lead to positive investor sentiment.
Q2
What insights can management provide about revenue growth and demand for educational products?
Understanding revenue drivers will be crucial for assessing the company's future growth potential and market position.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.29
Est. Rev
$27585.5B
Impl. Move
±19.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate McGraw Hill's ability to leverage digital learning trends, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.
Supporting evidence
The company's recent earnings history shows a consistent ability to beat estimates, indicating potential for another surprise.
Options pricing suggests a lower expected move compared to historical averages, indicating a potentially undervalued stock.
The lack of recent peer reports may suggest that McGraw Hill's unique position in the market is not being fully appreciated.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether McGraw Hill can maintain its recent earnings momentum amidst changing educational trends.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.20 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.10 would raise serious concerns about the company's growth trajectory.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.86%
Historical Avg
±11.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 10%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±9.9% while MH has averaged ±11.0% over the last 5 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
30d HV
49.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.56%
of float
Insider
0.44%
of float
Holders
155
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Platinum Equity Advisors, LLC/DE
165,160,216 sh · $2.2B
86.33%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If McGraw Hill beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 9.42%, confirming the bullish outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss estimates, the stock could drop significantly, as seen in past reactions, potentially around 5.80%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
American Century Companies Inc
4,477,614 sh · $58.7M
2.34%
7.2%
Blackbarn Capital Partners LP
2,450,000 sh · $32.1M
1.28%
17.3%
Blackrock Inc.
1,741,124 sh · $22.8M
0.91%
-5.3%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
1,668,132 sh · $21.9M
0.87%
11.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.