Equity Profile

MOS

The Mosaic Company

MaterialsFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals$7.1B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a leading producer of potash and phosphate crop nutrients, essential for agricultural productivity. As a key player in the materials sector, Mosaic's performance is closely tied to global food demand and agricultural trends.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and respond to market demand.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MOS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-44.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Mosaic reported an EPS of $0.05, significantly missing expectations of $0.20, leading to a 1.80% decline in stock price the following day. The company continues to face challenges in meeting revenue expectations.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the upcoming earnings report, especially given the company's recent struggles with earnings misses. The market is looking for signs of improvement in profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Mosaic can demonstrate a rebound in EPS and revenue, it could signal a recovery in demand for agricultural nutrients, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Continued earnings misses and weak revenue could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to analyst expectations?

Given the significant misses in recent quarters, the EPS figure will be critical in assessing whether the company is on a path to recovery.

How has revenue changed compared to the previous quarter, and what are the management's expectations moving forward?

Revenue trends will provide insight into market demand for Mosaic's products and the company's operational effectiveness.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in agricultural demand, which could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing in a 21.46% move, suggesting the market is bracing for volatility.

The company's recent operational adjustments may not yet be fully reflected in analyst expectations.

Historical trends show that Mosaic has occasionally surprised the market positively despite recent misses.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.20, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Mosaic's ability to turn around its earnings performance after several disappointing quarters.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or higher, indicating a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05, confirming ongoing struggles with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.46%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while MOS has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

31.3%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (242K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mosaic beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.8%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 1.45%, further damaging investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends for agricultural nutrients.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into the company's pricing strategy for its products.
4Details on any new product developments or innovations.
5Guidance on expected market conditions for the remainder of the year.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Aug3

ONBMO

ON Semiconductor Corporation

PreviewView

Aug3

LBMO

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and respond to market demand.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MOS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-44.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.47%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Mosaic can demonstrate a rebound in EPS and revenue, it could signal a recovery in demand for agricultural nutrients, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Continued earnings misses and weak revenue could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to analyst expectations?

Given the significant misses in recent quarters, the EPS figure will be critical in assessing whether the company is on a path to recovery.

How has revenue changed compared to the previous quarter, and what are the management's expectations moving forward?

Revenue trends will provide insight into market demand for Mosaic's products and the company's operational effectiveness.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in agricultural demand, which could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing in a 21.46% move, suggesting the market is bracing for volatility.

The company's recent operational adjustments may not yet be fully reflected in analyst expectations.

Historical trends show that Mosaic has occasionally surprised the market positively despite recent misses.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.20, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Mosaic's ability to turn around its earnings performance after several disappointing quarters.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or higher, indicating a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05, confirming ongoing struggles with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.46%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while MOS has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

31.3%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (242K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mosaic beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.8%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 1.45%, further damaging investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends for agricultural nutrients.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into the company's pricing strategy for its products.
4Details on any new product developments or innovations.
5Guidance on expected market conditions for the remainder of the year.