Equity Profile

MOS

The Mosaic Company

MaterialsFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals$7.1B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a leading producer of potash and phosphate crop nutrients, essential for agriculture. As a key player in the materials sector, Mosaic's performance is closely tied to global agricultural trends and food production demands.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be looking for signs of recovery after recent misses.

$0.20

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to increase sales, which is vital for long-term sustainability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MOS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-44.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Mosaic reported an EPS of $0.05, significantly missing the expected $0.20. Following this disappointing result, the stock fell by 1.80% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiencies.
Commitment to enhancing product offerings.
Plans to address supply chain challenges.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are cautious as Mosaic has struggled with earnings surprises in recent quarters. Investors are hoping for a turnaround this quarter.

Bull Case

If Mosaic can deliver strong EPS and show signs of revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand and operational improvements.

Bear Case

Continued misses on earnings and revenue could indicate deeper issues within the company or the agricultural sector, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.20

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be looking for signs of recovery after recent misses.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to increase sales, which is vital for long-term sustainability.

Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

N/A

Understanding COGS will help assess profit margins and operational efficiency, especially in a fluctuating commodity market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed $0.20 this quarter?

A positive EPS would indicate a recovery from recent misses and could boost investor confidence.

What are the expectations for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's future performance and ability to meet market demands.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Mosaic's potential for recovery, as recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent insider buying could signal confidence in the company's turnaround strategy.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.20, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market perception.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal for Mosaic as they seek to recover from a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or higher would confirm the bull case and signal a turnaround in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 would reinforce concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.46%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while MOS has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

31.3%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (242K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 29 (41%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 12 of 29 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.8% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mosaic beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2% on the first day, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line result may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses again, the stock could drop by about 1.45% on average, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on operational efficiency improvements.
2Details on product demand and pricing strategies.
3Insights into supply chain management.
4Any commentary on market conditions affecting agriculture.
5Future guidance on revenue expectations.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be looking for signs of recovery after recent misses.

$0.20

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to increase sales, which is vital for long-term sustainability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MOS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-44.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Mosaic reported an EPS of $0.05, significantly missing the expected $0.20. Following this disappointing result, the stock fell by 1.80% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiencies.
Commitment to enhancing product offerings.
Plans to address supply chain challenges.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are cautious as Mosaic has struggled with earnings surprises in recent quarters. Investors are hoping for a turnaround this quarter.

Bull Case

If Mosaic can deliver strong EPS and show signs of revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand and operational improvements.

Bear Case

Continued misses on earnings and revenue could indicate deeper issues within the company or the agricultural sector, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.20

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be looking for signs of recovery after recent misses.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to increase sales, which is vital for long-term sustainability.

Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

N/A

Understanding COGS will help assess profit margins and operational efficiency, especially in a fluctuating commodity market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed $0.20 this quarter?

A positive EPS would indicate a recovery from recent misses and could boost investor confidence.

What are the expectations for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's future performance and ability to meet market demands.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Mosaic's potential for recovery, as recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent insider buying could signal confidence in the company's turnaround strategy.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.20, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market perception.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal for Mosaic as they seek to recover from a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or higher would confirm the bull case and signal a turnaround in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 would reinforce concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.46%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while MOS has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

31.3%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (242K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 29 (41%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mosaic beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2% on the first day, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line result may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses again, the stock could drop by about 1.45% on average, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on operational efficiency improvements.
2Details on product demand and pricing strategies.
3Insights into supply chain management.
4Any commentary on market conditions affecting agriculture.
5Future guidance on revenue expectations.