Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, May 5, 2026
EPS actual
$1.65
EPS est.
$0.71
EPS surprise
+130.77%
1-day move
+3.16%
Marathon Petroleum's strong EPS performance significantly exceeded expectations, which likely contributed to the stock's 3.16% increase. However, the lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the overall business outlook. Investors may be encouraged by the earnings surprise but will need more information to assess future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.65 | $0.93 | +130.77% |
| Revenue | N/A | $30.9B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading player in the energy sector, focusing on oil refining and marketing. With a market cap of $72 billion, it plays a crucial role in the supply chain of petroleum products, which are essential for transportation and various industries.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Marathon Petroleum reported an impressive EPS of $4.07, significantly beating estimates by nearly 49%. The stock reacted positively, gaining over 6% the following day.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+194.48%
Avg 1-day reaction
+2.03%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Marathon Petroleum's upcoming earnings, with expectations for solid EPS and revenue figures. However, the wide range in estimates indicates uncertainty in market conditions.
Bull case
If MPC meets or exceeds the high end of EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and robust demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if earnings fall short of expectations, it may raise concerns about profitability amid fluctuating oil prices and market conditions, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.93Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$30.9BRevenue reflects the overall sales performance of the company and is critical for assessing growth and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.93?
A strong EPS figure would reinforce confidence in the company's profitability and operational efficiency, impacting stock performance.
Q2
How does revenue compare to the consensus of $30.9 billion?
Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand and growth, and any significant deviation could influence market sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
While the consensus expects steady performance, the market may be underestimating the impact of recent supply chain disruptions on refining margins.
Supporting evidence
The wide range of EPS estimates suggests uncertainty that could lead to volatility.
Recent trends in oil prices may not fully reflect in MPC's operational efficiency, potentially skewing expectations.
Key risk
If refining margins are significantly impacted by external factors, it could lead to lower-than-expected earnings.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Marathon Petroleum navigates market conditions and manages costs amid fluctuating oil prices.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.55 would indicate significant challenges in profitability and could lead to a bearish outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.25%
Historical Avg
±3.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.2% while MPC has averaged ±3.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
39.6%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
79.52%
of float
Insider
0.33%
of float
Holders
2,448
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
26,006,017 sh · $11.5B
8.91%
6.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If MPC beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.92%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 6.13%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future profitability.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
0 buys·3 sells
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
19,074,289 sh · $8.4B
6.53%
-0.5%
State Street Corporation
18,471,905 sh · $8.2B
6.33%
-2.9%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
15,631,265 sh · $6.9B
5.35%
-0.3%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
8,351,157 sh · $3.7B
2.86%
6.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 22, 2026 · disclosed Oct 1, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 24, 2026 · disclosed Aug 6, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.