Equity Profile

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$86.7B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to demand fluctuations.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $87 billion, the company plays a crucial role in supplying fuel and energy products, which are essential for both consumers and businesses. As the energy landscape evolves, MPC's performance can be influenced by factors such as oil prices, regulatory changes, and shifts in consumer demand.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Marathon Petroleum reported an impressive EPS of $1.65, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining over 3% the following day, reflecting investor confidence.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining strong refining margins.
Commitment to optimizing operational efficiency.
Plans to enhance market share in key regions.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as investors look for continued strong performance following recent earnings surprises. The market is keen to see if MPC can sustain its momentum amid fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Case

If MPC reports strong EPS and revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and effective cost management, leading to further stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of declining refining margins, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a strong figure could reinforce investor confidence.

How are refining margins expected to trend in the upcoming quarter?

Refining margins directly impact profitability, and any decline could raise concerns about future earnings.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the impact of rising refining margins, which could significantly boost earnings this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Recent earnings surprises indicate strong operational efficiency.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, hinting at potential positive news.

Historical performance shows a strong tendency to beat EPS estimates.

Key Risk

If refining margins fall below $10 per barrel, it could undermine the bullish thesis.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether MPC can maintain its recent earnings momentum amid changing market dynamics.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 would indicate potential challenges in profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MPC beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.71%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh management's commentary on future prospects.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could drop by about 6.13%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on refining margin trends and forecasts.
2Any updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Insights into market demand for refined products.
4Management's outlook on oil price fluctuations.
5Comments on competitive positioning in the energy sector.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to demand fluctuations.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining strong refining margins.
Commitment to optimizing operational efficiency.
Plans to enhance market share in key regions.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If MPC reports strong EPS and revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and effective cost management, leading to further stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of declining refining margins, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a strong figure could reinforce investor confidence.

How are refining margins expected to trend in the upcoming quarter?

Refining margins directly impact profitability, and any decline could raise concerns about future earnings.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the impact of rising refining margins, which could significantly boost earnings this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Recent earnings surprises indicate strong operational efficiency.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, hinting at potential positive news.

Historical performance shows a strong tendency to beat EPS estimates.

Key Risk

If refining margins fall below $10 per barrel, it could undermine the bullish thesis.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether MPC can maintain its recent earnings momentum amid changing market dynamics.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 would indicate potential challenges in profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MPC beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.71%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh management's commentary on future prospects.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could drop by about 6.13%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on refining margin trends and forecasts.
2Any updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Insights into market demand for refined products.
4Management's outlook on oil price fluctuations.
5Comments on competitive positioning in the energy sector.