Equity Profile

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$72.6B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading player in the energy sector, primarily focused on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $73 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, impacting fuel prices and energy availability across the U.S....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

Not available

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for refined products.

Not available

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Marathon Petroleum reported an EPS of $1.65, significantly exceeding expectations by 130.77%. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 3.16% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on operational efficiency improvements.
Commitment to maintaining strong cash flow.
Plans to enhance refining capacity.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts are cautiously optimistic about Marathon Petroleum's upcoming earnings, especially given the strong performance in the previous quarter.

Bull Case

If the company continues to outperform expectations, it could signal robust demand for refined products and effective cost management.

Bear Case

On the other hand, any signs of declining margins or reduced demand could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $1.65?

Given the strong surprise last quarter, investors will be looking for continued momentum or signs of a slowdown.

What are the revenue figures, and how do they reflect current market conditions?

Revenue performance will be critical to understanding the demand for refined products and overall market health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for continued strong demand for refined products, especially given recent trends in energy consumption.

Supporting Evidence

MPC has consistently surprised on EPS, indicating stronger-than-expected operational performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility that may not align with consensus expectations.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $1.80, it could challenge the cautious outlook and shift sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as investors assess the sustainability of the company's recent success.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.50 would support the bear case, suggesting potential issues in demand or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty or strong expectations surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Marathon Petroleum beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.71%, confirming strong operational health.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management's commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about -6.13%, reflecting concerns over market demand or operational challenges.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on refining margins and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Any updates on operational efficiency initiatives.
3Insights into market demand trends for refined products.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and market conditions.
5Responses to questions about potential risks in the supply chain.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

Not available

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for refined products.

Not available

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Marathon Petroleum reported an EPS of $1.65, significantly exceeding expectations by 130.77%. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 3.16% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on operational efficiency improvements.
Commitment to maintaining strong cash flow.
Plans to enhance refining capacity.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts are cautiously optimistic about Marathon Petroleum's upcoming earnings, especially given the strong performance in the previous quarter.

Bull Case

If the company continues to outperform expectations, it could signal robust demand for refined products and effective cost management.

Bear Case

On the other hand, any signs of declining margins or reduced demand could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $1.65?

Given the strong surprise last quarter, investors will be looking for continued momentum or signs of a slowdown.

What are the revenue figures, and how do they reflect current market conditions?

Revenue performance will be critical to understanding the demand for refined products and overall market health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for continued strong demand for refined products, especially given recent trends in energy consumption.

Supporting Evidence

MPC has consistently surprised on EPS, indicating stronger-than-expected operational performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility that may not align with consensus expectations.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $1.80, it could challenge the cautious outlook and shift sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as investors assess the sustainability of the company's recent success.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.50 would support the bear case, suggesting potential issues in demand or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty or strong expectations surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Marathon Petroleum beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.71%, confirming strong operational health.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management's commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about -6.13%, reflecting concerns over market demand or operational challenges.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on refining margins and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Any updates on operational efficiency initiatives.
3Insights into market demand trends for refined products.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and market conditions.
5Responses to questions about potential risks in the supply chain.