Equity Profile

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$100.1B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading player in the energy sector, focusing on oil refining and marketing. With a market cap of $100 billion, it plays a crucial role in the supply chain of petroleum products, which are essential for transportation and various industries.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and a strong EPS can signal robust financial health.

$13.95

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$41.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Marathon Petroleum reported an EPS of $1.65, significantly beating estimates by 130.77%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.16% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect strong earnings driven by high oil prices and refined product demand. The consensus EPS of $13.95 indicates confidence in the company's profitability.

Bull Case

If Marathon Petroleum exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially leading to a stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS expectations, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate market volatility, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$13.95

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and a strong EPS can signal robust financial health.

Revenue

$41.4B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Marathon Petroleum's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $13.95?

A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence in the company's profitability and operational strength.

What are the revenue figures compared to the expected $41.4 billion?

Revenue performance is critical to understanding demand for their products and overall market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent high oil prices on Marathon Petroleum's profitability, which could lead to a significant earnings surprise.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for a larger than expected reaction.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $29.7 billion, it could raise concerns about demand and profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the company's ability to maintain profitability amidst fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $15.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $8.56 would indicate significant challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MPC beats estimates, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.71%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction as investors assess management's commentary on future outlook.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around -6.13%, raising concerns about market conditions.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and how they are impacting profitability.
2Insights into demand trends for gasoline and other refined products.
3Management's outlook on oil price volatility and its potential impact on operations.
4Details on cost management strategies in the current economic environment.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and a strong EPS can signal robust financial health.

$13.95

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$41.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Marathon Petroleum reported an EPS of $1.65, significantly beating estimates by 130.77%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.16% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect strong earnings driven by high oil prices and refined product demand. The consensus EPS of $13.95 indicates confidence in the company's profitability.

Bull Case

If Marathon Petroleum exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially leading to a stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS expectations, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate market volatility, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$13.95

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and a strong EPS can signal robust financial health.

Revenue

$41.4B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Marathon Petroleum's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $13.95?

A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence in the company's profitability and operational strength.

What are the revenue figures compared to the expected $41.4 billion?

Revenue performance is critical to understanding demand for their products and overall market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent high oil prices on Marathon Petroleum's profitability, which could lead to a significant earnings surprise.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for a larger than expected reaction.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $29.7 billion, it could raise concerns about demand and profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the company's ability to maintain profitability amidst fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $15.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $8.56 would indicate significant challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MPC beats estimates, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.71%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction as investors assess management's commentary on future outlook.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around -6.13%, raising concerns about market conditions.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and how they are impacting profitability.
2Insights into demand trends for gasoline and other refined products.
3Management's outlook on oil price volatility and its potential impact on operations.
4Details on cost management strategies in the current economic environment.