Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.76
EPS est.
$0.73
EPS surprise
+3.68%
1-day move
+0.52%
MGIC Investment Corporation reported an EPS of $0.76, beating expectations by 3.68%. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 0.52%, indicating investor confidence in the company's performance despite the lack of revenue data and guidance updates.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.76 | $0.74 | +3.68% |
| Revenue | N/A | $303M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) operates in the financial sector, focusing on mortgage insurance for residential and commercial properties. As a key player in mortgage finance, its performance is closely tied to housing market trends and interest rates, making it an important company to watch in the current economic climate.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, MGIC reported an EPS of $0.75, exceeding estimates by 3.16%. The stock saw a positive reaction, gaining 2.34% the following day.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+12.05%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.09%
Analysts expect MGIC to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.74. The market is looking for continued strength in the housing sector.
Bull case
If MGIC beats EPS estimates, it could signal strong demand for mortgage insurance and effective cost management, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations, it may raise concerns about the health of the housing market and MGIC's ability to maintain profitability.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.74Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.
Revenue
303MTotal revenue provides insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand for its insurance products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will MGIC's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.74?
A beat could indicate strong performance and boost investor confidence, while a miss might raise concerns about the company's future.
Q2
What commentary will management provide on the current housing market conditions?
Insights into the housing market will be crucial for understanding MGIC's growth prospects and risk exposure.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate MGIC's ability to navigate the current housing market challenges, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.
Supporting evidence
MGIC has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong operational management.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.
The recent positive trends in the housing market may not be fully reflected in the consensus estimates.
Key risk
If the housing market shows unexpected strength, it could lead to significantly better-than-expected earnings.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether MGIC can sustain its earnings growth amid fluctuating housing market conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.77 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.73 would raise significant concerns about profitability and market conditions.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.54%
Historical Avg
±1.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.9% while MTG has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
15.9%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$5.0M
187,114 sh
3 insiders
Net
$5.0M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades
$3.6M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.93%
of float
Insider
1.76%
of float
Holders
664
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
21,931,461 sh · $593.7M
10.69%
-5.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If MGIC beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.05%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating a potential average drop of around 1.17%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$781,800.00
Net selling
$589,600.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $26.23
137,114 sh
$3.6M
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $26.06
30,000 sh
$781,800.00
Sep 24, 2026 · @ $29.48
20,000 sh
$589,600.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
17,432,643 sh · $471.9M
8.50%
-2.9%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
13,803,323 sh · $373.7M
6.73%
1.1%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
11,267,784 sh · $305.0M
5.49%
2.5%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
11,079,911 sh · $299.9M
5.40%
-1.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.