Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.87
EPS est.
$0.74
EPS surprise
+17.09%
1-day move
+0.00%
MGIC Investment Corporation reported an EPS of $0.87, which exceeded expectations by over 17%. However, there was no revenue figure provided, and the stock reaction was flat, indicating that investors may be waiting for more information before making decisions.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.87 | N/A | +17.09% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results. The company reported a positive EPS surprise.
MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) operates in the financial sector, specifically in commercial and residential mortgage finance. The company plays a crucial role in the housing market by providing mortgage insurance, which helps lenders manage risk and enables more people to secure home loans.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, MGIC reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by 3.68%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.52% the following day, reflecting positive market sentiment.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+12.05%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.09%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about MGIC's upcoming earnings, given its consistent track record of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.
Bull case
If MGIC continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and potentially lead to a stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, any signs of rising loss ratios or declining new insurance written could raise concerns about the company's risk exposure and lead to a negative market reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the loss ratio be this quarter?
The loss ratio is critical for understanding the company's risk management and profitability, especially in a fluctuating housing market.
Q2
How much new insurance was written in Q2-2026?
This figure will indicate demand for mortgage insurance and the company's growth potential in a competitive market.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate MGIC's ability to maintain a low loss ratio despite potential market headwinds, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected performance.
Supporting evidence
MGIC has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational control.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect a notable reaction to the earnings report.
Historical data shows that MGIC has a 100% EPS beat rate, which may not be fully reflected in current market sentiment.
Key risk
If the loss ratio comes in below 20%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook and drive a positive reassessment of the stock.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching MGIC's ability to manage risk while growing its insurance portfolio, making these metrics pivotal.
Bull confirmed if
A loss ratio below 20% would confirm strong risk management and operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
A loss ratio above 25% would raise significant concerns about the company's risk exposure.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±15.76%
Historical Avg
±1.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±15.8% while MTG has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
32.3%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$5.0M
187,114 sh
3 insiders
Net
$5.0M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades
$3.6M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.93%
of float
Insider
1.76%
of float
Holders
664
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
21,931,461 sh · $593.7M
10.69%
-5.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If MGIC beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 1.07% on average, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 1.07% following disappointing results.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$781,800.00
Net selling
$589,600.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $26.23
137,114 sh
$3.6M
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $26.06
30,000 sh
$781,800.00
Sep 24, 2026 · @ $29.48
20,000 sh
$589,600.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
17,432,643 sh · $471.9M
8.50%
-2.9%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
13,803,323 sh · $373.7M
6.73%
1.1%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
11,267,784 sh · $305.0M
5.49%
2.5%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
11,079,911 sh · $299.9M
5.40%
-1.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.