Equity Profile

MTG

MGIC Investment Corporation

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$6.3B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) operates in the financial sector, focusing on mortgage insurance for both commercial and residential properties. As a key player in mortgage finance, its performance can reflect broader trends in the housing market and consumer spending.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well MGIC is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric reflects the core revenue stream for MGIC, indicating demand for mortgage insurance in the current market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, MGIC reported an EPS of $0.76, surpassing expectations by 3.68%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.52% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on improving underwriting standards.
Commitment to maintaining a strong capital position.
Plans to enhance customer service and technology integration.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for MGIC's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors keenly watching for any signs of growth in mortgage insurance demand.

Bull Case

If MGIC reports strong EPS and improved loss ratios, it could signal a robust housing market and effective risk management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company shows signs of increasing losses or declining premiums, it may indicate a weakening housing market, which could negatively impact the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected loss ratio for this quarter?

The loss ratio is critical for assessing MGIC's risk management effectiveness and could impact investor confidence.

How have mortgage insurance premiums changed compared to last quarter?

Changes in premiums can indicate market demand and MGIC's competitive positioning, which are vital for future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate MGIC's resilience in a challenging housing market, particularly if they report stable premiums despite economic headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

MGIC has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders are anticipating a surprise.

Historical data shows that MGIC has a strong track record of managing risk effectively.

Key Risk

If the loss ratio comes in below 30%, it could challenge the consensus view of increasing risk in the mortgage market.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around MGIC's ability to manage risk while capitalizing on mortgage insurance demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS growth of over 10% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A loss ratio exceeding 40% would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.76%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.8% while MTG has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

32.3%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 1.00Puts (500)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MGIC beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 1% on the first day, confirming a strong outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may see minimal movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1% based on historical patterns, raising concerns about the company's market position.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance premium trends.
2Details on the company's loss ratio and risk management strategies.
3Insights into customer demand for mortgage insurance.
4Management's outlook on the housing market for the next quarter.
5Any commentary on technological advancements in underwriting processes.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well MGIC is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric reflects the core revenue stream for MGIC, indicating demand for mortgage insurance in the current market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, MGIC reported an EPS of $0.76, surpassing expectations by 3.68%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.52% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on improving underwriting standards.
Commitment to maintaining a strong capital position.
Plans to enhance customer service and technology integration.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for MGIC's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors keenly watching for any signs of growth in mortgage insurance demand.

Bull Case

If MGIC reports strong EPS and improved loss ratios, it could signal a robust housing market and effective risk management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company shows signs of increasing losses or declining premiums, it may indicate a weakening housing market, which could negatively impact the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected loss ratio for this quarter?

The loss ratio is critical for assessing MGIC's risk management effectiveness and could impact investor confidence.

How have mortgage insurance premiums changed compared to last quarter?

Changes in premiums can indicate market demand and MGIC's competitive positioning, which are vital for future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate MGIC's resilience in a challenging housing market, particularly if they report stable premiums despite economic headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

MGIC has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders are anticipating a surprise.

Historical data shows that MGIC has a strong track record of managing risk effectively.

Key Risk

If the loss ratio comes in below 30%, it could challenge the consensus view of increasing risk in the mortgage market.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around MGIC's ability to manage risk while capitalizing on mortgage insurance demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS growth of over 10% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A loss ratio exceeding 40% would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.76%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.8% while MTG has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

32.3%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 1.00Puts (500)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MGIC beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 1% on the first day, confirming a strong outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may see minimal movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1% based on historical patterns, raising concerns about the company's market position.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance premium trends.
2Details on the company's loss ratio and risk management strategies.
3Insights into customer demand for mortgage insurance.
4Management's outlook on the housing market for the next quarter.
5Any commentary on technological advancements in underwriting processes.