Equity Profile

MTH

Meritage Homes Corporation

Consumer DiscretionaryHomebuilding$4.8B

Apr28Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a homebuilder focused on designing and constructing energy-efficient homes. As part of the consumer discretionary sector, the company plays a crucial role in the housing market, which is influenced by consumer spending and economic conditions.

Key Metrics to Watch

Home Sales Volume

This metric indicates the demand for homes and can reflect overall market conditions.

N/A

Average Selling Price (ASP)

ASP helps gauge pricing power and profitability in a competitive market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Meritage Homes reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.86, missing estimates by 15%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.12% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Expectations for Meritage Homes are mixed, with investors watching for signs of recovery after recent earnings misses. The market is particularly focused on home sales and pricing trends.

Bull Case

If Meritage can demonstrate strong home sales and maintain or increase average selling prices, it could signal a rebound in demand and profitability.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports further declines in sales or pricing pressure, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the housing market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the trend in net orders for the quarter?

Net orders are a leading indicator of future revenue and can signal whether demand is stabilizing or declining.

How has the average selling price changed compared to previous quarters?

Changes in the average selling price can impact margins and profitability, reflecting the company's pricing power in the current market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in home demand, especially given recent trends in mortgage rates and consumer sentiment.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 7.79% move, suggesting the market is bracing for volatility.

The historical average move has only been 1.36%, indicating that the current pricing may be excessive.

Recent commentary from other homebuilders suggests a potential uptick in demand.

Key Risk

If net orders exceed expectations significantly, it could shift the narrative around housing demand.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will hinge on consumer demand and pricing strategies in a challenging housing market.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in net orders compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in average selling price or further drops in net orders would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.79%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while MTH has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

37.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 7.11Puts (1K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 15 of 28 (54%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 15 of 28 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.4% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Meritage beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.36%, confirming a positive outlook for demand.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report could lead to muted reactions as investors await further commentary on market conditions.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.52%, indicating ongoing challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on net orders and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Insights on average selling price trends and pricing strategies.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and consumer demand.
4Comments on cost pressures and how they are being managed.
5Any guidance on future quarters and expected market conditions.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Home Sales Volume

This metric indicates the demand for homes and can reflect overall market conditions.

N/A

Average Selling Price (ASP)

ASP helps gauge pricing power and profitability in a competitive market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Meritage Homes reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.86, missing estimates by 15%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.12% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Expectations for Meritage Homes are mixed, with investors watching for signs of recovery after recent earnings misses. The market is particularly focused on home sales and pricing trends.

Bull Case

If Meritage can demonstrate strong home sales and maintain or increase average selling prices, it could signal a rebound in demand and profitability.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports further declines in sales or pricing pressure, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the housing market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the trend in net orders for the quarter?

Net orders are a leading indicator of future revenue and can signal whether demand is stabilizing or declining.

How has the average selling price changed compared to previous quarters?

Changes in the average selling price can impact margins and profitability, reflecting the company's pricing power in the current market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in home demand, especially given recent trends in mortgage rates and consumer sentiment.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 7.79% move, suggesting the market is bracing for volatility.

The historical average move has only been 1.36%, indicating that the current pricing may be excessive.

Recent commentary from other homebuilders suggests a potential uptick in demand.

Key Risk

If net orders exceed expectations significantly, it could shift the narrative around housing demand.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will hinge on consumer demand and pricing strategies in a challenging housing market.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in net orders compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in average selling price or further drops in net orders would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.79%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while MTH has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

37.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 7.11Puts (1K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 15 of 28 (54%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Meritage beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.36%, confirming a positive outlook for demand.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report could lead to muted reactions as investors await further commentary on market conditions.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.52%, indicating ongoing challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on net orders and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Insights on average selling price trends and pricing strategies.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and consumer demand.
4Comments on cost pressures and how they are being managed.
5Any guidance on future quarters and expected market conditions.