Equity Profile

MTH

Meritage Homes Corporation

Consumer DiscretionaryHomebuilding$4.9B

Apr28Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a homebuilder focused on designing and constructing energy-efficient homes. As part of the consumer discretionary sector, it plays a crucial role in the housing market, which is influenced by consumer spending, interest rates, and economic conditions.

Key Metrics to Watch

Home Sales Volume

This metric indicates the demand for homes and can reflect overall market conditions.

N/A

Average Selling Price

Changes in the average selling price can signal shifts in consumer preferences and pricing power.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Meritage Homes reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.86, missing expectations by 15%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.12% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Meritage Homes are cautious, especially following a recent earnings miss. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in home sales and pricing power.

Bull Case

If Meritage can demonstrate strong home sales and maintain or increase average selling prices, it could signal a rebound in demand and profitability.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued weakness in sales or declining margins, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the housing market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current average selling price of homes?

This figure will be critical in assessing pricing power and demand trends in the housing market.

How many homes did Meritage sell this quarter?

Sales volume is a direct indicator of market demand and can influence investor sentiment significantly.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the strength of demand in certain regions, as local markets can vary significantly from national trends.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating greater uncertainty.

Recent trends in consumer spending suggest a potential rebound in housing demand that may not be reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If home sales volume exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the strength of the housing market and Meritage's ability to navigate it successfully.

Bull Confirmed If

If home sales volume exceeds last quarter's figures, it would indicate a recovery in demand.

Bear Confirmed If

A significant drop in average selling price or sales volume would confirm bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.79%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while MTH has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

37.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 7.11Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Meritage beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.36%, confirming a positive outlook for the housing market.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may remain stable or see a slight decline.

Miss

If the company misses earnings again, history suggests a potential drop of around 0.52% as investor confidence wanes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on regional sales performance and any emerging trends.
2Comments on pricing strategies and their impact on gross margins.
3Insights into supply chain challenges and their effects on homebuilding.
4Any guidance on future home sales expectations.
5Management's view on the overall housing market outlook.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Home Sales Volume

This metric indicates the demand for homes and can reflect overall market conditions.

N/A

Average Selling Price

Changes in the average selling price can signal shifts in consumer preferences and pricing power.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Meritage Homes reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.86, missing expectations by 15%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.12% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Meritage Homes are cautious, especially following a recent earnings miss. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in home sales and pricing power.

Bull Case

If Meritage can demonstrate strong home sales and maintain or increase average selling prices, it could signal a rebound in demand and profitability.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued weakness in sales or declining margins, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the housing market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current average selling price of homes?

This figure will be critical in assessing pricing power and demand trends in the housing market.

How many homes did Meritage sell this quarter?

Sales volume is a direct indicator of market demand and can influence investor sentiment significantly.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the strength of demand in certain regions, as local markets can vary significantly from national trends.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating greater uncertainty.

Recent trends in consumer spending suggest a potential rebound in housing demand that may not be reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If home sales volume exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the strength of the housing market and Meritage's ability to navigate it successfully.

Bull Confirmed If

If home sales volume exceeds last quarter's figures, it would indicate a recovery in demand.

Bear Confirmed If

A significant drop in average selling price or sales volume would confirm bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.79%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while MTH has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

37.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 7.11Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Meritage beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.36%, confirming a positive outlook for the housing market.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may remain stable or see a slight decline.

Miss

If the company misses earnings again, history suggests a potential drop of around 0.52% as investor confidence wanes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on regional sales performance and any emerging trends.
2Comments on pricing strategies and their impact on gross margins.
3Insights into supply chain challenges and their effects on homebuilding.
4Any guidance on future home sales expectations.
5Management's view on the overall housing market outlook.