Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 6, 2026
EPS actual
$1.40
EPS est.
$1.04
EPS surprise
+34.62%
1-day move
+14.49%
This earnings report indicates that MACOM is experiencing strong growth, particularly in the data center market, which drove a significant stock increase of 14.49%. The record book-to-bill ratio suggests continued demand, and management's positive guidance for Q4 reinforces this trend. Overall, the results reflect a robust outlook for the company in the near term.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.40 | N/A | +34.62% |
| Revenue | $342.2 million | N/A | N/A |
| Book-to-Bill Ratio | 1.6 | N/A | N/A |
| Data Center Revenue | $137.6 million | N/A | N/A |
Management expressed confidence in the company's performance, highlighting strong demand across various sectors. They provided optimistic revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter.
The company achieved a record book-to-bill ratio of 1.6, indicating strong demand across all end markets.
Management expects Q4 revenue to be between $415 million and $425 million.
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. is a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductor solutions. Operating in the Information Technology sector, MACOM plays a crucial role in enabling technologies such as 5G, data centers, and cloud computing.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, MACOM reported an EPS of $1.09, significantly exceeding expectations by 42.86%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 11.19% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+33.85%
Avg 1-day reaction
+6.26%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about MACOM's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, there are concerns about revenue growth sustainability.
Bull case
If MACOM continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and market demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing growth, it could lead to a significant sell-off, especially given the high market cap.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What specific revenue growth rates can MACOM report for its key segments?
This will provide insight into the company's market demand and whether it can sustain its recent performance.
Q2
Will management provide any guidance on operational efficiency improvements?
Operational efficiency is crucial for maintaining profitability, especially in a competitive semiconductor market.
—
Est. EPS
$1.00
Est. Rev
$14.1B
Impl. Move
±11.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating MACOM's growth potential in high-demand segments like 5G and data centers, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
MACOM has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.
The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting potential upside.
Recent trends in semiconductor demand suggest a rebound that could benefit MACOM.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds 15%, it could significantly alter the market's perception of MACOM's growth trajectory.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on MACOM's ability to demonstrate both profitability and growth in a challenging semiconductor landscape.
Bull confirmed if
If MACOM reports revenue growth of 15% YoY or better, it would confirm strong demand and operational effectiveness.
Bear confirmed if
A revenue growth rate below 5% would raise concerns about market demand and could lead to a negative stock reaction.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.94%
Historical Avg
±9.4%
The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.94%, suggesting that investors expect some volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±4.9% while MTSI has averaged ±9.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
60.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Semiconductors
Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$195,900.00
653 sh
1 insider
Net
$195,900.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$195,900.00
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If MACOM beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 4.29%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see little movement as investors reassess their outlook.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 7.78%, reflecting investor disappointment.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
0 buys·2 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $300.00
653 sh
$195,900.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 16, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded May 22, 2026 · disclosed Jun 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.