Equity Profile

MUSA

Murphy USA Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$11.3B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$7.28

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial for sustaining long-term growth.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MUSA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail. The company is known for its network of gas stations and convenience stores, which play a vital role in meeting consumer demand for fuel and convenience products.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.53%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Murphy USA reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $7.28, significantly exceeding expectations by over 52%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.11% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Murphy USA's upcoming earnings, especially after a strong performance last quarter. However, the lack of revenue guidance may lead to uncertainty.

Bull Case

If the company maintains strong fuel margins and continues to outperform EPS expectations, it could see significant stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of declining margins or failure to meet EPS expectations could lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$7.28

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial for sustaining long-term growth.

Fuel Margin

N/A

Fuel margins are critical for profitability in the automotive retail sector, especially given fluctuating oil prices.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the fuel margin be for the quarter?

Fuel margins are a critical driver of profitability, and any significant changes could impact overall earnings.

How does management view consumer demand trends going forward?

Understanding consumer demand is essential for assessing future revenue potential, especially in the automotive retail space.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for Murphy USA to sustain strong fuel margins despite rising competition and fluctuating oil prices.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger operational efficiency than anticipated.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, which may reflect greater volatility than the market is prepared for.

Historical performance shows that the company has a strong track record of recovering from dips.

Key Risk

If fuel margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the company's ability to maintain margins and respond to consumer demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $7.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $6.80 could indicate weakening margins and demand, leading to a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.79%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±19.8% while MUSA has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

51.4%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 11.29Puts (700)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Murphy USA beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.98%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors weigh management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 0.72%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on fuel margin trends and their impact on profitability.
2Management's outlook on consumer demand and how it may affect sales.
3Insights into cost management strategies in response to fluctuating oil prices.
4Any commentary on new store openings or expansion plans.
5Updates on competitive pressures in the automotive retail sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$7.28

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial for sustaining long-term growth.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MUSA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.53%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Murphy USA reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $7.28, significantly exceeding expectations by over 52%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.11% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Murphy USA's upcoming earnings, especially after a strong performance last quarter. However, the lack of revenue guidance may lead to uncertainty.

Bull Case

If the company maintains strong fuel margins and continues to outperform EPS expectations, it could see significant stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of declining margins or failure to meet EPS expectations could lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$7.28

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial for sustaining long-term growth.

Fuel Margin

N/A

Fuel margins are critical for profitability in the automotive retail sector, especially given fluctuating oil prices.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the fuel margin be for the quarter?

Fuel margins are a critical driver of profitability, and any significant changes could impact overall earnings.

How does management view consumer demand trends going forward?

Understanding consumer demand is essential for assessing future revenue potential, especially in the automotive retail space.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for Murphy USA to sustain strong fuel margins despite rising competition and fluctuating oil prices.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger operational efficiency than anticipated.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, which may reflect greater volatility than the market is prepared for.

Historical performance shows that the company has a strong track record of recovering from dips.

Key Risk

If fuel margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the company's ability to maintain margins and respond to consumer demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $7.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $6.80 could indicate weakening margins and demand, leading to a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.79%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±19.8% while MUSA has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

51.4%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 11.29Puts (700)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Murphy USA beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.98%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors weigh management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 0.72%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on fuel margin trends and their impact on profitability.
2Management's outlook on consumer demand and how it may affect sales.
3Insights into cost management strategies in response to fluctuating oil prices.
4Any commentary on new store openings or expansion plans.
5Updates on competitive pressures in the automotive retail sector.