Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, Jul 27, 2026
EPS actual
$1.01
EPS est.
$1.02
EPS surprise
-0.79%
1-day move
+0.27%
NBT Bancorp's earnings report showed a slight miss on EPS, which typically indicates challenges in profitability. However, the stock still reacted positively, gaining 0.27%. This could suggest that investors are optimistic about other aspects of the company's performance or future potential, despite the EPS miss.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.01 | N/A | -0.79% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
NBT Bancorp Inc. is a regional bank that provides various financial services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and insurance. As a player in the financial sector, it is influenced by interest rates, loan demand, and economic conditions, making its performance relevant to investors tracking regional banks.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, NBT Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.97, slightly missing estimates. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.27% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+5.79%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.02%
Investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report due to mixed signals from the previous quarter. The lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty.
Bull case
If NBT Bancorp can show strong loan growth and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could exceed expectations and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the bank reports lower-than-expected EPS or weak loan growth, it may lead to a negative reaction from the market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?
The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether the bank has maintained its profitability amid economic pressures.
Q2
How has loan growth trended in the last quarter?
Loan growth is a key indicator of demand and can significantly impact future earnings and overall bank health.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may underestimate NBT Bancorp's ability to maintain profitability despite economic challenges, especially if loan growth is stronger than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
The bank has a history of surprising on the upside, with a 63% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility which may not align with consensus views.
The lack of analyst estimates may lead to underestimation of the bank's potential performance.
Key risk
If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the bank's stability.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as investors look for signs of growth and profitability in a challenging economic environment.
Bull confirmed if
A reported EPS above $1.00 would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.90 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the bank's financial stability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±17.9%
Historical Avg
±1.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±17.9% while NBTB has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
22.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
69.47%
of float
Insider
2.83%
of float
Holders
394
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
7,477,880 sh · $375.2M
14.39%
1.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If NBT Bancorp beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.04%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management offers cautious commentary, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess their expectations.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of 1.38% following earnings misses.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,449,538 sh · $173.1M
6.64%
-0.7%
State Street Corporation
2,731,491 sh · $137.1M
5.26%
9.9%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
2,406,173 sh · $120.7M
4.63%
3.2%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,254,925 sh · $113.2M
4.34%
0.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.